Avery Schumer
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Avery Schumer in Sector Report,

The government’s favorite sector

So the financial sector is a huge part of the U.S. economy and stock market. But in fact, Financial Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLF) chart is bearish looking. 

The XLF chart goes back a whole decade. It soared 335% from March 2009 to July 2015, it is still well below its all-time high.

According to Simon Maierhofer's research the chart clearly shows that XLF continues to respond to Fibonacci levels. It found support around 18.21 (38.2% Fibonacci support) and currently at sits at 22.01 (50% Fibonacci support).

Besides that the XLF is also interesting from an Elliott Wave perspective. So the XLF looks to have completed a 3-wave move from the 2009 low to the 2015 high. Unless waves 4 and 5 are to follow, this marks the end of the XLF rally and is long-term bearish.

The major trend generally unfolds in 5 waves. Countertrends generally unfold in 3 waves. Countertrend rallies most commonly retrace around 61.8% of the previous decline. The XLF has all the ingredients for a large-scale reversal.