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Forex - Weekly outlook: July 27 - 31

© Reuters. Dollar pushes higher as commodity linked currencies slump

Investing.com - The dollar was broadly higher against the other major currencies on Friday as the commodity linked currencies weakened after soft Chinese factory data fueled fears over slackening demand for raw materials.

Private sector data showed that manufacturing activity in China slowed to a 15-month low in July.

The preliminary reading of the Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 48.2 from a final reading of 49.4 in June. It was the lowest reading since April 2014.

The weak data indicated that growth in China, the world’s largest consumer of raw materials, remains sluggish.

The Australian dollar slumped to a six year trough, with AUD/USD hitting lows of 0.7260, before settling at 0.7280, down 1.02% for the day.

The New Zealand dollar was also lower, with NZD/USD down 0.47% to 0.6575 in late trade.

The euro was unchanged late Friday, with EUR/USD at 1.0984. The dollar dipped against the yen, with USD/JPY easing 0.08% to 123.80.

The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was at 97.34 in late trade, paring the week’s losses to 0.65%.

In the U.S., data on Friday showed that new home sales fell to a seven-month low in June, while another report showed that manufacturing activity edged higher this month.

The Commerce Department reported that sales of new homes fell 6.8% last month, to an annual rate of 482,000 units, the lowest level since November.

May's figure was revised down to 517,000 units from the previously reported 546,000 units.

A separate report showed that the Markit manufacturing PMI ticked up to 53.8 this month from 53.6 in June, which was the slowest pace since October 2013.

The mixed data came as investors were turning their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy announcement on Wednesday amid ongoing speculation over the timing of an initial interest rate hike.

On Friday, the Fed mistakenly published a staff projection pointing to a quarter point rate hike later this year.

The dollar has been boosted by expectations that the U.S. central bank could raise rates as soon as September if the economy continues to improve as expected.

The U.S. is to publish an initial estimate on second quarter growth on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the euro zone is to release data on consumer inflation and the unemployment rate on Friday. Investors will also be monitoring progress in Greece’s bailout negotiations.

Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, July 27

In the euro zone, the Ifo Institute is to report on German business climate.

The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders.

Tuesday, July 28

The U.K. is to release preliminary data on second quarter economic growth.

The U.S. is to release a report on consumer confidence.

Wednesday, July 29

Japan is to produce data on retail sales.

The Gfk Group is to report on German business climate.

The U.K. is to release data on net lending.

The U.S. is to report on pending home sales.

Later Tuesday, the Federal Reserve is to announce its latest monetary policy decision and publish its rate statement.

Thursday, July 30

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens is to speak at an event in Sydney. At the same time, Australia is to report on building approvals and import prices.

Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.

In the euro zone, Germany and Spain are to release preliminary data on consumer inflation. Spain is also to release preliminary data on second quarter growth and Germany is to release data on the change in the number of people employed.

Later Thursday, the U.S. is to produce preliminary data on second quarter growth and the weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, July 31

Japan is to produce figures on household spending and inflation.

New Zealand is to publish a report on business confidence.

Australia is to release data on producer price inflation.

The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on consumer prices, as well as a report on the unemployment rate. Meanwhile, Germany is to report on retail sales.

Canada is to publish its monthly report on economic growth.

The U.S. is to round up the week with revised data on consumer sentiment and a report on business activity in the Chicago region.


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