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Double Whammy Brings AUD/JPY to Rising Support

The AUD/JPY has been rallying for most of April, but came up to a common resistance area this week between 86.20 and 86.70 as we can see in the daily chart. 

AUD/JPY Daily Chart 4/28


(click to enlarge)

There were 2 key fundamental movers this week. 
1) AUS inflation data disappointed, suggesting possible rate cut consideration this year. (AUD-bearish)
2) BoJ did not push any incremental stimulus as the market expected, and wanted. (JPY-bullish)

The combination of these 2 event risks caused the AUD/JPY to fall sharply over the past couple of sessions, from about 86.25 to almost 82 by the 4/28 US session.

Now, the daily chart shows AUD/JPY in consolidation mode since the start of 2016. This consolidation has started to form somewhat of an ascending triangle. The dip this week is bringing price back to the rising support of this consolidation triangle. I am anticipating some reaction here around 82 and if there is some sideways action over the next couple of session, I might consider buying AUD/JPY here with a target of 86. The stop will be under an anticipated consolidation low looking at the 1H chart. 

AUD/JPY 1H Chart 4/28

(click to enlarge)

In the 1H chart we can see that the decline has somewhat slowed down, but we have no real support pivot yet. I would wait for more evidence of a price bottom around 82 next week.