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FOMC Should Help USD/JPY Break its Range

The 4H USD/JPY chart shows the pair rallying after a sharp decline in October from the high on the year around 110 down to 105.19. The rally has stalled at 108.35, and price has fallen into a range between 107.60 and 108.35, ahead of the FOMC announcement.

USD/JPY 4H Chart 10/29
(click to enlarge)

Now, if price breaks above 108.40, the USD/JPY is likely back on a bullish mode with the 2014-highs around 110 in sight. If this happens after the FOMC delivers what is expected: complete tapering of QE and not change the forward guidance, then we should expect some choppiness heading up to 110, because it is nothing surprising. A surprise would be the Fed moving the rate hike projection earlier. This scenario would send USD/JPy toward 110 with less likelihood of a pullback.

On the other hand, a break below 107.60 would fall below a rising speedline and below 107.60. This opens up a support/resistance pivot area just below 106.50. now this is probably because there is concern about the economic recovery. Now if there is a pullback, let's monitor the 107.50-107.60 area for resistance. If it holds, the bearish outlook remains. If QE is not even completely tapered then the USD/JPY is likely to fall in a hurry back toward the 105.19 low, with risk of further lower.