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Economic Sentiment Dips in Germany, Eurozone; EUR Slides

The ZEW Economic Sentiment data for Germany and the Eurozone came in today, both missing forecasts:

Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug.) - 8.6, Forecast: 18.2, Previous: 27.1


(source: forexfactory.com)

Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (Aug.) - 23.7, Forecast 41.3, Previous 48.1

(source: forexfactory.com)

As you can see from the historic charts of the two data points, sentiment has been positive since 2013. However, it has gone into a down cycle since early 2014. The orange bar represents the average forecast, and you have seen the ZEW Economic Sentiment release not only trend down but miss expectations almost every month in 2014. 

You almost expected it to miss expectations. Still, data showed a very big slide in sentiment missing the already pessimistic forecasts. We can attribute a lot of the slide in outlook to lingering credit crunch issues, subdued growth in 2014, and geopolitical tensions (Iraq, Israel-Gaza, Ukraine-Russia, Syria etc.). 

The EUR was pulled down after the poor sentiment data. Here's a look at the EUR/USD 4H chart:

(EUR/USD 4H Chart 8/12)

The EUR/USD was due for consolidation and was putting in a double bottom last Friday. However, this week started with price slowly drifting lower and accelerating downwards at the time of the sentiment data release. Price looks poised to test last week's and the current year's low at 1.3333. A break below will expose the 1.3295-1.33 November lows.
If there is a pullback, watch out fro resistance around 1.3380. A break above 1.34 could revive a consolidation mode, otherwise, EUR/USD is sharply bearish.