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EUR/USD at Key Resistance ahead of FOMC

EUR/USD is stalling at a key short-term resistance around 1.38 as the market anticipates the FOMC meeting minutes, to be released at 2:00PM ET.

Resistance factors:
1) 1.3820 is a previous resistance pivot, and was a common resistance going back to Oct. 2013.
2) Falling channel resistance coming down from the 1.3966, 2014-high.
3) 4H oscillators overbought.

(eurusd 4h chart, 4/9)

A break above 1.3820 opens up 1.3875, then the 1.3950-1.3966 highs.A break below 1.3775 however maintains the short-term bearish mode and suggests there is still downside risk toward 1.3640-1.3650.

This downside risk is in the context of a prevailing uptrend that remains intact if price holds above the 1.3640-1.3650 area, which is supported by a previous pivot and a rising channel support.