The stock market has enjoyed a wild ride in 2016. The drop at the start of the year and the post-Brexit panic were swept to the side, and investors just keep ignoring high stock market valuations and forgetting that the bull market is now seven and a half years old. The long and short of the matter is this year has thrown a strong curve ball to analysts, investors and economists.
It would be very rare for analysts and investors to accurately predict a return for a year out. After all, picking a day or a single earnings event is hard enough. This is also an election year when the Federal Reserve wants to raise interest rates.
24/7 Wall St. pointed out at the start of 2016 that the bullish case was for the Dow to rise
Of the 30 Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks, nine have grossly disappointed against analyst expectations. It also turns out that five of them have outperformed analyst expectations — and some have outperformed analyst expectations handily.
Don’t forget that there are almost three months before 2016 formally ends, so things can still change. In less than a month we should know who will be the next president and which party will control the House and Senate. Half of the country (or more) will be very unhappy with either...