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Gold: About to test the 200-week moving average

Since the beginning of the year the commodity gained almost 8.0% but this past week fell more than 1.0% and is in a warning phase since mid-June.

Last week the precious metal initially fell and closed near the low of the week, however the commodity managed to close within the previous week range, which suggests being slightly on the bearish side of neutral.

Gold is at a critical level a do or die scenario where is about to test the 200 week moving average, the last stand of the bulls,  plus it is also alignment up with the upward trend line.

The stochastic is showing a strong bearish momentum and crossed below the 50 mid line.

Expecting a downward move to a key level at 1,199.36 on a break below the upward trend line at 1,234.00 (scenario 1) however a break above the previous week high at 1,258.04 may trigger a push upward to the previous swing high at 1,293.65 (scenario 2).