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EUR/AUD at the Crossroad

In 2014, EUR/AUD has been in a bearish trend going from the high on the year at 1.5831 to the low on the year at 1.3788.

EUR/AUD Daily Chart 11/3(click to enlarge)

Bearish Trend: During the whole way down, we saw clear lower highs and lower lows. The daily RSI has been tagging 30 and holding below 60, reflecting a persistent bearish momentum. Price has been trading below the 200-, 100-, and 50-day SMAs.

The Trend is Shifting: This bearish mode has been shifting. In September price rallied above 1) the 2014 falling trendline, and 2) the 100-, and 50-day SMAs. Meanwhile the RSI has broken above 60 to show that the bearish momentum is lost. Though it failed to tag 70, which shows that it has low or no bullish momentum. 

Bullish Correction Stalling: Price did retreat after tagging the 1.46 support/resistance pivot, and is now at the crossroad. It has signaled a shift of trend, but unable to establish a bullish signal. So for now, it is at most neutral bullish.

Buy on Dip? In this mode, maybe we should wait for further decline until price is back around 1.40 and the RSI is back below 30 to show oversold condition. This could be suitable strategy for a bearish-neutral market.

Bullish Outlook: Now, a break above 1.44 might revive the short-term bullish outlook toward 1.46 for another attempt to build a bullish trend.

The 4H chart shows that a break above 1.4450 would be an even stronger bullish signal as well especially if the RSI pops up above 60 and above 70.

A break above 1.4450 would not only clear the latest falling channel, but also above the cluster of SMAs and a support resistance pivot. 

EUR/AUD 4H Chart 11/3(click to enlarge)