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Watch Out for the Three Stooges: Global Week Ahead

In the Global Week Ahead, pay attention to three U.S. catalysts.

Will summer traders regard these three events as the Three Musketeers, charging up the hill, adding confidence? Or will they amount to the Three Stooges -- and give up a stumble or two -- and thus create a more ragged tone?

When you are writing on stock markets just a couple miles from the old Columbia Pictures studio lot, where Larry, Moe & Curley got their first and biggest boost, you become a partisan. Only time will tell the tale well.

First off, this will be the biggest earnings week of the Q2 season. There’s plenty of room for a lousy report. But there are so many, it may get washed out quickly.

Second, on Wednesday, the latest FOMC statement hits the tape. Watch out for market-moving comments about recent weak inflation data.

Third and finally, traders close out the week with a Friday 1st estimate of U.S. Q2 GDP growth. If Q2 doesn’t beat up on Q1, that would be considered a stumble.

Here is your U.S. roadmap—

Over the coming week, earnings will play the most significant role in both U.S. and global equity markets. 184 S&P500 firms release Q2 earnings. This will be the single heaviest reporting week of the season.

Key names: Alphabet (formerly Google), Newmont Mining, McDonald’s, 3M, Eli Lilly, Caterpillar, GM, AT&T, Coca-Cola, Ford, State Street, Boeing, Facebook, Procter & Gamble, UPS, Mastercard, Intel, Amazon, Starbucks, Mattel, Merck, Xerox and American Airlines.  

On Wednesday, consensus expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) not to change its Fed Funds target range. It rests at 1.25%.

July is a statement-only event. But will the press release show FOMC members have big concerns over recent soft inflation figures? Or will the majority reinforce a belief that it is transitory?

Out on Friday, the week saves the best (or worst…) for last. The first estimate of U.S. GDP growth in Q2 arrives at 8:30am ET.

The U.S. recorded just +1.4% y/y growth in Q1. Bloomberg’s consensus expects +2.6% in Q2.

We can consult the Fed ‘nowcast’ forecasting business, though it is getting a bit crowded these days. The St. Louis Fed has +2.5%, which matches the Atlanta Fed’s latest estimate at +2.5%. Both estimates are a notch above the NY Fed’s at +1.9%.

Outside the U.S., pay attention to Brazil--

Out on Wednesday, consensus is firm. Banco Central do Brasil will cut its SELIC policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) agajn. It would follow on a 100 bps cut on May 31st.

If that Brazilian cut happens, it would bring cumulative easing since last October to five full percentage points, from a cycle peak of 14.25% to 9.25%.

Top Zacks #1 Rank (STRONG BUY) Stocks—

Facebook FB:
This is now an incredible $476 billion in market cap stock. The long-term Zacks VGM score is a solid B, but it comes by mixing a lousy D in Value with an A in Growth. How long can that Momentum trade last?

Air Liquide AIQUY: This is a big French Diversified Chemicals firm, with $48 billion in market cap. The Zacks long-term VGM score is a mediocre C. But the chemical industry has been red hot this year, and this is a European trading stock, another strong Momentum trade this year.

Intuitive Surgical ISRG: This is the darling of Medical-Instrument stocks, and you won’t get it cheap. The stock price is a shocking $927. This $34 billion market cap stock is indeed accruing a well-deserved Zacks Value score of F. The Zacks Growth score is C. That’s not as good as one might hope for here.

Maybe just watch these hot Momentum stocks trade, and don’t buy?

Global Macro—

On Monday
, Germany’s preliminary manufacturing PMI came out at 58.3 and services at 53.5. Those are solid expansion PMI numbers.

The preliminary Eurozone composite PMI came in at 55.8, with manufacturing PMI at 56.8 and the services PMI at 55.4. Again, all three PMIs marked solid expansionary data.

Taiwan’s unemployment rate comes out. It has been 3.79%.

We will get Mexico’s bi-weekly CPI. It is forecast for +6.25% y/y, after a prior +6.33%.

On Tuesday, Finland’s unemployment rate comes out. It has been a high 10.7%.

Germany’s important IFO indexes come out. Business climate should go from 115.1 to 115.5, current conditions from 124.1 to 125, and expectations from 106.8 to 107.

Poland’s unemployment rate come out. It has been 7.4%.

U.S. Case-Shiller home prices indexes come out. The national index has been tracking at +5.67% y/y.

On Wednesday, Brazil’s SELIC rate comes out. Look for a 100 bps cut from 10.25% to 9.25%.

The Fed announces its latest interest rate decision. Don’t expect any change. The Fed Funds rate is at 1.25%.

On Thursday, Norway’s unemployment rate comes out. It is at 4.6%. This is much, much better than Finland. Go figure.

Sweden’s unemployment rate comes out.  It is 7.2%. That’s between Norway and Finland.

Turkey releases its monetary policy decisions.  The 1-week repo rate (a policy rate) has been 8.0% there.

U.S. durable goods orders come out (the prior month was up +0.3% m/m). U.S. initial claims also come out. The prior there was a hot 233K.

On Friday, the Central Bank of Russia gives up its monetary policy decision. The key rate is now 9.0%.

Brazil’s national unemployment rate comes out. It is forecast to go from 13.3% to 13.5%.

The first estimate for U.S. GDP in the 2nd quarter comes out. The prior was +1.4% y/y. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker has +2.5% for this quarter, at the moment.


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