Vladislav Shchukin
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P&G –The way to save

   Thinking about the consumer goods industry, the first thing that comes to mind - it's such industry giants as Unilever, P&G, Johnson & Johnson, and so on. Today, we just talk about one of them – P&G. What are the chances of success? What are the prospects for the future?

   Undoubtedly, the market is still observed the flight to quality. Probably, many traders prefer reducing their own risks and continues to move away to the blue chips and other low-risk assets. In this case, companies like P & G becoming an attractive alternative.

   For the three months ended 30 September 2015, Procter & Gamble Co revenues decreased 12% to $16.53B. This was largely due to the economic difficulties in Europe, Asia and product embargo in Russia. Despite this, as a whole can be expected in the last quarter of certain revenue growth associated with the seasonal increase in demand for all consumer goods. And as can be seen, P&G at the end of the year always shows good results on the stock exchange, which is also connected with the company's dividend policy.

   For the benefit say revenue growth and constant increase in production capacity and a gradual increase in demand on world markets. There has been a steady rise in wages in the United States since the beginning of the year. For standardized consumer goods sector is one of the key macroeconomic indicators. Due to the strong income elasticity of demand of households.

    The analysis of world news and has a positive tone for the long-term investment. China has canceled limit on the number of children in the family, which obviously lead to a boom in the birth rate and the demand for consumer goods and hygiene products for children. The international community is gradually weakening economic pressure on Russia and Iran. In addition, according to research by the PWC, is expected to increase in the retail sector in the Asian market, which is clearly a positive impact on the consumer goods industry in general and on the company P&G in particular. P&G is one of the most active players in the global market and these trends have a positive impact on cash flow projections of the company.

   Delving into the analysis, we can say that today, P&G is a truly attractive investment. While stocks are relatively cheap, and then exit in the middle of January. The current $ 75 per share, compared with last year's $ 92 in January look attractive. In addition, elemental analysis of indicators also favor investment in P&G. In the case of this company, in our opinion there is some undervaluation of the company, which may mean good growth in the future.

P&G Industry
P/E Ratio 24.85 29.32
Price to Sales 2.83 2.68
Price to Cash Flow 57.35 462.66
Price to Free Cash Flow             55.43          128.91
Price to Book 3.36 84.89

    In table the most important indicators are presented. Some multiplicators are significantly lower than industry average. P/CF lower approximately in 8 times, P/FCF - 2, the extreme 25 in case of P/BV. That shows underperforming of stock. So we can expect its growth.

   Turning to the stock exchange, can be seen that the price broke through the ceiling in the short period of time and immediately fell back slightly. It is possible that the stock will keep $ 75 as the minimum value because judging by the indicators MACD (move below the 0-line) and the oscillator RSI (value is close to 30, which means a strong oversold).

   Summarizing, we can say that P & G looks very confident on the market. Despite some reduction in revenue expectations are really positive. Probably should stick to the hold strategy in the long term. In addition, by the end of the year you can expect some growth, which will undoubtedly attract investors.

   In addition, after the collapse of the Chinese stock market began a massive "flight to quality" from individual and institutional investors in particular. The company has a large number of tangible assets, the adjusted sales channels and large stable dividend payments. From this we can assume that P & G shares will not have problems with liquidity and the threat of mass dumping of shares.