Fan Yang
1
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

Gold Testing Key Trendline Support Near 1200

Since marking a high on the year at 1307, gold prices have been falling. A month later, the 4H chart shows a persistently bearish market based on price action (lower highs, lower lows), moving averages, and the RSI reading. 

Gold 2/19 4H Chart


(click to enlarge)

The 1 month decline has not shown any signs of stopping, but as price pushes at 1200, we might have to consider possible support here, not only because it is a key psychological level, but also because it is being reinforced by a rising trendline support seen in the daily chart.

Gold Daily chart 2/19
(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows that gold has been bullish since marking a 2014-low in November at about 1130. Price failed to confirm a bullish trend when it failed to hold above the cluster of SMAs. However, the bullish bias remains based on the rising trendline holding (so far), and the daily RSI holding above 40. If price falls below 1200, and the daily RSI below 40, then we should consider the 1130-1140 lows in sight. 

On the other hand, if 1200 holds as support, and price pushes above 1250, it would show that bulls are still in control in the medium-term. In the 4H chart, a rally above 1250 would clearly push above projected channel resistance and the cluster of SMAs. This would expose the 1300-1307 highs, with risk of pushing even higher because the previaling trend since  November would have been intact.