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ECB Holds Rates and Optimistic About Stimulus Measures

The ECB held its benchmark interest rate at the historic low of 0.05% today as Draghi prepares everyone for the start of bond purchases next week, which would amount to about 60 billion euros ($66 billion) a month. Mario Draghi sounded optimistic that the stimulus program will stem deflationary threats, and noted "risk surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area remain on the downside” but, they “have diminished following recent monetary policy decisions.” The QE program looks like its going to be run as planned and this should continue to put pressure on the euro, especially against the USD, because the FOMC is looking at the other direction in the monetary policy spectrum - raising rates soon.

The EUR/USD already fell below the 1.11 low on the year. After the ECB statement, there was a jolt in both directions,but the bears maintained control as price found resistance at that 1.11 handle. Now it looks poised to continue lower towards the 1.10 handle, with risk of extending towards the parity (1.00) level.

EUR/USD 1H chart 3/5

(click to enlarge)