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EUR/AUD - Moving from Rounded Bottom to Test Resistance near 1.4965

EUR/AUD has been putting in a rounded bottom. It popped up above the 1.4656-1.4853 range this week, completing the rounded bottom, suggesting a bullish outlook going into next week.

(euraud 4h chart, 4/25)

Bullish scenario:
The 4H RSI has pushed above 60 and tagged 70, introducing bullish momentum after a period of bearish momentum. Now if the RSI comes down but holds above 40, we can add to this newly forming bullish momentum. Price should probably hold above 1.48 in this bullish scenario.

Channel resistance: A break above 1.4965 should open up the 1.5145 pivot. If the market does get up there, it is likely going to test the resistance factor of a falling channel resistance seen in the daily chart.

(EUR/AUD daily chart, 4/25)

Bearish scenario:
Note that the market has been bearish since EUR/AUD retreated from the 1.5830, 2014-high. Because it has shifted away from the prevailing bullish mode, we should respect the resistance around 1.5145, especially if the RSI is near 60, which invites a bearish swing.

To the downside, there is short to medium term risk towards the 1.4656, 2014-low, 1.4575 pivot, down to the 1.4050 support pivot.