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July New Car Sales Will Push Annual Rate to 17.1 Million

Carmakers will report July 2015 sales of new light vehicles on Monday, and analysts are expecting monthly sales in the neighborhood of 1.47 million units and a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 17.1 million units. July sales are projected to rise about 3% year-over-year and to be roughly flat to down a little month-over-month.

On a monthly basis, Edmunds estimates July sales at 1.478 million and Kelley Blue Book (KBB) expects new car sales to reach 1.47 million for the month. Of the eight automakers tracked by Edmunds and KBB most are expected to post year-over-year gains, and Edmunds estimates that three will post lower sales volumes in July than they did in June.

General Motors Co. (NYSE: GM) is tagged by Edmunds to post July market share of 17.8% of all U.S. light vehicle sales, with a total volume of nearly 264,000 units. That represents a month-over-month increase of 0.2% in market share and a 1.7% bump up in sales. KBB expects GM’s volume to rise 0.7% to 258,000 units and market share to slip 0.3% year-over-year. GM sold over 256,000 units in July of 2014 and had market share 17.9%.

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) is touted by the Edmunds’ analysts for a year-over-year gain of 2%, from unit sales of 211,467 last July to 215,796 this year, but market share is forecast to slide by 0.2%. Compared with June sales, Edmunds projects a 4% drop in volume and a drop of 0.7% in market share. KBB sees Ford sales rising 0.8% year-over-year to 214,000 units, but market share slipping by 0.3%

Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) is expected to post a year-over-year sales decline of 0.4% by KBB analysts, from 215,802 units last July to about 215,000. Edmunds forecasts a larger 0.8% year-over-year drop in market share; year-over-year sales down 2%; and a month-over-month increase of 0.7%. KBB sees Toyota market share slipping 0.4% year-over-year to 14.6% for the month which is equal to Ford’s projected share for the month..

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (NYSE: FCAU) will post a 0.8% year-over-year sales volume gain to 175,000 units according to KBB and the company’s market share will rise by 0.2% to 11.9%. Edmunds projects Chrysler sales up 4.9% for the month to around 180,000 units and a market share gain of 0.2%. Month-over-month Edmunds projects volumes down 4.9% and market share down by 0.7%.

Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE: HMC) is expected to post a 5.1% year-over-year gain in sales to about 143,000 (Edmunds) which would lift sales 6.3% sequentially. KBB sees Honda sales rising 2.3% to 139,000 and market share remaining flat at 9.5%. Edmunds sees Honda post a year-over-year market share gain of 0.2% and a sequential gain of 0.5%.

Both Edmunds and KBB project a year-over-year gain in sales volume for Volkswagen AG. Edmunds forecasts sales of about 47,000 compared with KBB’s forecast for unit sales of 52,000. For VW that’s a month-over-month decline of 4.4% in sales and 0.2% in market share.

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By Paul Ausick