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Case-Shiller Home Price Appreciation 'Stable' At Around 5% YoY

For the first time since April, Case Shiller Home Prices rose month-over-month (though barely at +0.11%). However, this very modestly better than expected print was all thanks to downward revisions of previous data. San Francisco continues to lead the 20-city index with a 10.7% YoY gain. This is the 6th month in a row in which year-over-year gains are basically stagnant at +5%

The first MoM gain in 3 months, thanks to downward revisions...

 

Leaving YoY gains basically flat for 6 months...

 

 

The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, recorded a slightly higher year-over-year gain with a 4.7% annual increase in August 2015 versus a 4.6% increase in July 2015. The 10-City Composite increased 4.7% in the year to August compared to 4.5% in the prior month. The 20-City Composite’s year-over-year gain was 5.1% versus 4.9% in the year to July.

Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.3% month-over-month in August. The 10-City Composite and 20-City Composite both reported gains of 0.3% and 0.4% month-over-month respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a gain of 0.4%, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both increased 0.1% month-over-month. Eighteen of 20 cities reported increases in August before seasonal adjustment; after seasonal adjustment, five were down, 11 were up, and four were unchanged.

San Francisco, Denver and Portland reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities with price increases of 10.7%, 10.7%, and 9.4%, respectively. Fifteen cities reported greater price increases in the year ending August 2015 versus the year ending July 2015. San Francisco and Denver are the only cities with double digit increases, and Phoenix had the longest streak of year-over-year increases. Phoenix reported an increase of 4.9% in August 2015, the ninth consecutive increase in annual price gains. Portland posted a 9.4% annual increase, up from 8.5% in July 2015; this is the biggest jump in year-over-year gains this month.

“Home prices continue to climb at a 4% to 5% annual rate across the country,” says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Most other recent housing indicators also show strength. Housing starts topped an annual rate of 1.2 million units in the latest report with continuing strength in both single family homes and apartments. The National Association of Home Builders sentiment survey, reflecting current strength, reached the highest level since 2005, before the housing collapse. Sales of existing homes are running about 5.5 million units annually with inventories of about five months of sales. However, September new home sales took an unexpected and sharp drop as low inventories were cited as a possible cause. 
Charts: Bloomberg