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Baxalta (BXLT) Q1 Earnings: Can the Stock Pull a Surprise?

Baxalta Incorporated BXLT will be reporting first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 28. Baxalta, which started trading on the NYSE from Jul 1, 2015, reported its third earnings results post spin-off from Baxter International Inc. BAX last quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2015, Baxalta posted a positive earnings surprise of 1.79%.

The average earnings surprise over the last three reported quarters is a negative 0.51%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for the first quarter of 2016.

Factors to Consider This Quarter

In its fourth-quarter 2015 earnings release, Baxalta provided guidance for the first quarter of 2016. The company expects pro forma sales growth (excluding the impact of foreign currency) of 8–9%. Including the impact of foreign currency, the company expects pro forma sales to increase 4–5%. Baxalta also expects earnings in the range of $0.44–$0.46 per share.

Baxalta’s Hematology and Immunology segments should continue to perform well in the first quarter of 2016. Existing products like Advate, Feiba and HyQvia and newly launched product Adynovate should continue to contribute to top-line growth. Rixubis and Obizur should also aid revenues. The company also started reporting revenues under the Oncology segment beginning the third quarter of 2015.

Meanwhile, Baxalta has a deep pipeline of candidates targeting hematology, oncology, immunology and biosimilars and is continuing to progress on its development. The company is also looking to boost its pipeline through external partnerships and strategic acquisitions. In Feb 2016, Baxalta announced a global collaboration with Precision BioSciences for the development of a broad series of allogeneic CAR T cell therapies targeting multiple cancers.

Considering that Baxalta is set to merge with Shire plc SHPG in a deal worth approximately $32 billion, all focus would be on the deal. The transaction is expected to close in early June this year.

On the first quarter call, investor focus will be on Baxalta’s quarterly performance, sales ramp-up of Adynovate along with that of other marketed products and pipeline updates.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Baxalta is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), #2 (Buy) or #3 (Hold) to be able to beat estimates. This is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: The Earnings ESP for Baxalta is 0.00%, as both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate are 46 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: Baxalta currently carries a Zacks Rank #3, which when combined with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, makes a surprise prediction difficult.

However, we caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

A Stock to Consider

Here is a health care stock that you may want to consider, as our model shows that it has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter.

The Earnings ESP for BioMarin Pharmaceutical Inc. BMRN is +22.35% and it carries a Zacks Rank #3. The company is scheduled to release first-quarter results on Apr 28.

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BAXTER INTL (BAX): Free Stock Analysis Report
BIOMARIN PHARMA (BMRN): Free Stock Analysis Report
SHIRE PLC-ADR (SHPG): Free Stock Analysis Report
BAXALTA INC (BXLT): Free Stock Analysis Report
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