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The Complete FOMC Cheat Sheet: All You Need To Know

The data, according to many analysts, have been broadly supportive, with stronger growth and a tightening in the labor market that should allow the Fed to be "reasonably confident" that inflation will gradually return to target. That said, heightened global risks could lead to a tactical delay. Economisseds remain evenly split on the prospect of the first rate increase in 9 years.

Fed fund futures price 30% odds of move this mo. and more than 50% chance in Dec.

Barclays (Michael Gapen, Rob Martin, Blerina Uruci)

  • Fed to stay on hold for now, lift rates in March
  • FOMC should delay liftoff as it assesses downside risks to outlook

BMO (Aaron Kohli)

  • “Our core view remains that liftoff is a 2015 event”
  • Whether Fed hikes or not is less important than impact of their “net communication” on mkts; “real question” is whether communication eases or tightens conditions

BNP (economists)

  • FOMC to give dovish projections at this mtg, delay liftoff
  • Yellen to reiterate action later this yr

BoT-Mit (Chris Rupkey)

  • Fed should be “propelled into action” at this mtg
  • U.S. economy remains on track for Fed to raise rates

Brean (Russ Certo)

  • Fed may be ready for rate hike, not mkts

Credit Agricole (David Keeble)

  • Fed Sept. mtg is “very live,” yet may lead to delay in liftoff

Credit Suisse (research analysts)

  • FOMC won’t hike in Sept., may hint at Oct. or Dec.
  • Timing largely contingent on global conditions/financial mkt volatility

DB (Joseph LaVorgna, Brett Ryan, Aditya Bhave)

  • FOMC likely to say prudent course is “to do nothing,” favor waiting to see how economic/financial “landscape” evolve before Oct. mtg

FTN (Chris Low)

  • Fed will choose to raise rates now; officials will agree 25bps is no “big deal one way or the other”

Jefferies (Ward McCarthy, Thomas Simons)

  • Fed will make modest changes to statement, mostly on economic/labor mkt assessment; both should be more optimistic than in July
  • 2015 median dot should decline to 0.375%, suggesting just 1 hike before end of yr
  • Fed will also announce press conferences after each mtg until liftoff

JPM (Michael Feroli)

  • Sept. mtg “very close call,” odds tilt toward liftoff

Macquarie (Nizam Idris)

  • FOMC increase of 12.5bps can’t be ruled out

MFR (Josh Shapiro)

  • Odds are slightly higher of liftoff in Oct. than now
  • FOMC statement should hint “strongly at such a move”

Mizuho (Steven Ricchiuto)

  • Fed may not get conditions needed to hike until 2H 2016

Nomura (George Goncalves)

  • Fed will probably skip liftoff Thursday
  • Officials to say conditions aren’t right to hike

Pimco (Harley Bassman)

  • Fed needs to “remove Hamlet’s cape,” hike now
  • Policy makers have all information they need to act now

RBC (Tom Porcelli, Jacob Oubina, Michael Cloherty, Dan Grubert)

  • Fed, to liftoff, would likely want to nudge mkt odds higher
  • Less than 50% odds, coupled with no new guidance before FOMC mtg, means RBC will have to mark down its own odds of Sept. liftoff

Renaissance (Neil Dutta)

  • Fed most likely to pass on rate increase Thursday; odds of move are 50%

Sberbank (Tom Levinson)

  • “We narrowly favor a hike,” with Fed trying to turn volatile mkt conditions to its advantage
  • Liftoff now may subdue anxiety, signal confidence, improve risk sentiment in 4Q

Scotiabank’s Guy Haselmann

  • FOMC needs to rip “band aid off,” hike already
  • Uncertainty around liftoff has made mkts “untradeable and wildly volatile”

Societe Generale (strategists)

  • Minimal liftoff could bring relief
  • Fed rate increase would deliver positive signal on U.S. economy, remove uncertainty

TD (Millan Mulraine)

  • Fed to err on side of caution, take pass on liftoff for now
  • Dots will reflect slower pace of stimulus withdrawal, lower terminal rate once liftoff begins

Wells Fargo (John Silvia, Mark Vitner, Michael Brown)

  • Liftoff won’t be any easier in Oct. or Dec. than now
  • Sticking with view that Fed will lift off at this mtg by 25bps

And finally BofAML...

A key question is whether FOMC officials will pencil in one or two hikes for this year. Fed Chair Yellen will emphasize in the press conference that this is not a "one and done" tightening. While the trajectory will be data dependent, the Fed anticipates a gradual path of higher rates over time. She may acknowledge downside risks from the global economy and tighter financial conditions as factors that could slow the hiking cycle.

In an effort to simplify the conversation, BofAML shows outcomes for the Fed under their baseline scenario of a hike and the alternative of a delay...

Source: Bloomberg, BofA

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Trade Accordingly...