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EUR/USD Back at the 200-day SMA

The EUR/USD began the week on a bullish note, breaking above last week's high and continuing to drift towards the June high of 1.3676. June's consolidation stalled the bearish attempt in May where EUR/USD fell from 1.3993 to 1.3503. A break above 1.3680 can revive the bullish outlook especially if price can stay above 1.36 on a subsequent pullback. 

(eurusd 4h chart, 6/30)

On the daily chart, you can see EUR/USD approaching the 200-day simple moving average. If the 200-day SMA acts as a resistance, the bearish outlook will strengthen toward the 2014-low of 1.3476, below which the 1.3295-1.33 Nov. 2013 lows would be exposed. 


(eurusd daily chart, 6/30)

Let's see which side of the 200-day SMA EUR/USD will stay on after this week. The retail sales and CPI data were soft, but with CPI not dipping below the 0.5% means there is no new fuel for the ECB to act on Thursday. Also on Thursday, we will get the US NFP. How will EUR/USD deal with the technical factors after Thursday's event risks? 

If price falls below 1.3575, we are likely in the bearish continuation scenario, with the 2014-low and May low (1.3476, 1.3503) in sight.