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Home Depot (HD) - technical analysis suggests a pullback within a bullish market

Home Depot (HD) has been bullish in July and on the year as well. It is extending a secular bull market initiated in 2009. Although the long-term outlook is still bullish, the technical picture suggests a short to medium-term bearish correction first. 

HD Daily Chart 8/17

(click to enlarge)

Trend became choppy:
- The uptrend is still intact, but the structure has become more choppy since late 2015.
- Note that price is stalling at a projected rising resistance.
- The last 2 times price stalled, it ended up pulling back down. 
- If we do see a bearish correction, we can anticipate a push to 132.
- If price returns to 132, price will be supported by 1) a cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-day simple moving average (SMAs), 2) a rising trendline, and 3) a support pivot in April. 

130 could be key:
- If HD falls back below 130, there might be in a period of consolidation with downside risk back towards 124 and possibly 110 (near the low on the year). 
- We should note that the structure of the market since Sept. 2015 can be interpreted as a "diagonal triangle", which is considered a topping pattern using Elliott Wave analysis. 

Temper the bullish expectation, anticipate neutral-bearish market:
- With some bearish scenarios ahead, I think we should step back from the bullish outlook. 
- Now, if price bounces up before falling to the rising trendline, and if the RSI holds above 40, THEN, we have some evidence that the bullish outlook is still alive. Otherwise, its probably a good idea to anticipate some more sideways and even some medium-term bearish outlook.