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EUR/USD Continues to Coil Under 1.1450

The EUR/USD has entered a consolidation within a consolidation since last week. Looking at the smaller scale one on the 1H chart, we can see that price has found resistance in the 1.1440-1.1450 area. However, we are seeing higher lows, which makes this an ascending triangle pattern. There is a slight bullish bias, especially if price can hold above 1.1380. That will be the key event to look for during the 2/19 US session - whether EUR/USD can hold above 1.1380 for the most part. If it does, the mode is neutral-bullish. A break above 1.1450 would anchor EUR/USD into more of a bullish outlook.

EUR/USD 1H Chart 2/19


(click to enlarge)

Now, if price instead falls below 1.1360 and the rising speedline, the mode would be neutral-bearish, and there would be pressure towards some common lows around 1.1270-80, with strong risk of falling lower towards the 1.11 low on the year.

EUR/USD 4H Chart 2/19


(click to enlarge)

We can see the very neutral consolidation mode in the 4H chart, so any bullish or bearish bias seen in the 1H chart is going to be a fickle one. A break above 1.15 would be key and first open up the 1.16-1.1650 highs from a previous consolidation in mid-January. As noted above, a break below 1.1270 exposes the 1.11 low, and also revives the bearish mode with risk of extending below 1.11.