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Macro Dump, Earnings Slump & Hawkish-Fed Pump Spark 4th Best October For Stocks Since 1929

Why we rallied... (BTFD short squeeze)

Because... (the central banks conditioned traders)

How it will end... (The markets are at 2:00 in this clip)

*  *  *

Before we start... This!

 

And this...

 

October - Just For Fun

  • This is the 4th biggest October rally since 1929!!

  • Best overall month for the S&P since October 2011
  • Nasdaq's best month since September 2010

Nasdaq the big winner and Trannies underperformed (weak close today)...

 

With Materials, Energy, and Tech the huge winners...

 

Leaving stocks the most overbought since Nov 2014...

 

And then there's Valeant...

 

The Dow still did not quite make it back to green for 2015... even as The S&P surge back into the green (and Nasdaq nears cycle highs once again)

 

While October was a big month for stocks, it was less exciting across the other asset classes...

 

Treasury yields tumbled initially on poor payrolls.. then yields went nowhere for 3 weeks til The FOMC...

 

The US Dollar managed some modest gains (once again driven by China rate cuts, ECB and FOMC moves)

 

Silver surged over 7% on the month as copper slid over 1% amid China growth concerns. Crude and Gold (after the former's meltup) were equally higher on the month...

*  *  *

So back to this week...

The Dow actually closed lower of 4 of the 5 days this week, but the melt-up after The FOMC turned hawkish-er saved stocks for the week..

 

And stocks have given all of the fomc gains back...

 

Although today was weak..with an ugly close...

 

Most mind-blowingly, "Most Shorted" was notably weak post-FOMC and stunningly roundtripped to perfectly unchanged on the month - after the massive squeeze post-payrolls...

 

Since The FOMC Statement...Gold is the loser, stocks gave back gains, with only crude higher...

 

Something remains majorly broken in The VIX Complex...

 

Treasury yields pushed on higher this week with the long-end outperforming overall (after yesterday's ugliness which was rumored to be dominated by rate-locks on heavy issuance)...

 

The USDollar drifted lower again today, giving up all of its Hawkish FOMC gains...

 

And it seems US equities are catching on to what FX markets think...

 

Commodities generally drifted lower on the week, apart from crude...

 

Crude ripped higher on the latter half of the week - running stops above last week's highs before fading...

 

Charts: Bloomberg