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Non-Farm Payroll Misses Forecast; USD Holds

The Non-Farm Payroll report for July showed 209K jobs added to the economy, missing forecast of around 230K. The previous print was revised up to 298K from 288K. The unemployment rate inched back up to 6.2% after falling from 6.3% to 6.1% in  June. 

US NFP since Jan. 2007

(source: forexfactory.com)

In other jobs data, we saw average hourly earnings remain flat in July, after a 0.2% increase in June. Lack of wage growth would be something that can drag out the low interest period despite other data reaching goals. 
A key inflation gauge, the core CPE Price Index rose 0.1% in July, after a 0.2% in  June. 
Personal spending rose 0.4%, which is up from June's 0.3% print. 
Overall, today's data is flat to worse than expected. But taking away expectations, the data is not so bad. It is definitely not as strong as June's, but should keep the FOMC's current outlook in terms of the interest-rate-hike-schedule. 
The USD Index reflects a market trying to find a top after this week of US dominated fundamental factors. If the USDX can hold south of 81.35 at the end of the day, it would have completed a top, and we can expect some more sideways action next week. 


(USDX 1H Chart, 8/1)

Otherwise, if price holds above 81.35, the market is only sideways in the near-term, with the bullish bias intact. A break above 81.60 should open up toward the 82 handle, but we should start anticipating some pullback as the RSI reading is near 80, and reflects overbought condition.

(USDX Daily Chart 8/1)