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Philip Tetlock – Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course In Superforecasting [Class V]

Philip Tetlock - Edge Master Class 2015: A Short Course In Superforecasting [Class V] by John Brockman,Russell Weinberger and Nina Stegeman, Edge.org

Condensing it All Into Four Big Problems and a Killer App Solution

With Philip Tetlock [9.22.15]

Edge Master Class 2015 with Philip Tetlock
— A Short Course in Superforecasting

Philip Tetlock

Philip Tetlock: If you turn to session six, slide 117-118, you’re going to see a little piece on the seductive power of scenarios. Imagine you’ve got one of these between subjects designs in which half of the people read the top slide, half of the people read the bottom slide, then they make a judgment about the plausibility or probability of this outcome.

The first one, on slide 117, is the likelihood of a flood anywhere in North America in the next thirty years killing 1000 people or more. The next one is the likelihood of a flood anywhere in North America, triggered by an earthquake causing a dam to collapse in the next thirty years killing 1000 people or more.

Philip Tetlock
Philip Tetlock

You can imagine randomly assigning half of the people read one version, half read the other. A moment’s contemplation reveals that it would be very odd if people judged the bottom slide—the more detailed one—to be more probable than the top one.

It’s probably obvious to everybody around this...


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