Zacks
0
All posts from Zacks
Zacks in Our Research. Your Success.,

What's in Store for Welltower (HCN) in Q1 Earnings?

Welltower Inc. HCN is slated to report first-quarter 2016 results before the market opens on May 3. Last quarter, this healthcare real estate investment trust (“REIT”) had delivered a 0.89% positive earnings surprise.

In the trailing four quarters, the company surpassed estimates three times with an average beat of 0.91%. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter funds from operations (“FFO”) is currently pegged at $1.12.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

Welltower’s diversified portfolio, business relationship with experienced healthcare management companies & operators and strategic investments are expected to serve as growth drivers for the company.

National healthcare expenditure is rising, with senior citizens incurring higher medical expenses compared with the average population. Therefore, armed with a steady balance sheet, the company is well poised to capitalize on the opportunities available in the healthcare market.

However, intense competition might restrict the company’s growth. Generation of a major portion of revenues from few select tenants and governmental reimbursement programs also add to its risks.

Welltower’s activities during the quarter failed to gain adequate analyst confidence. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate remained unchanged at $1.12 over the last seven days.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Welltower will beat estimates this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. This is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate currently stands at $1.12, resulting in an Earnings ESP of 0.00%.

Zacks Rank: Although the company’s Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP, its zero ESP makes surprise prediction difficult.

Note that we caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 or #5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks to Consider

Here are a few stocks in the REIT sector that you may want to consider, as our model shows that they have the right combination of elements to post a positive surprise this quarter:

Host Hotels & Resorts, Inc. HST has an Earnings ESP of +2.63% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will report results on Apr 29.

Taubman Centers, Inc. TCO has an Earnings ESP of +3.53% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will release results on May 2.

Vornado Realty Trust VNO has an Earnings ESP of +0.81% and a Zacks Rank #3. The company will report first-quarter 2016 results on May 2.

Note: FFO, a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs, is obtained after adding depreciation and amortization and other non-cash expenses to net income. All earnings per share numbers presented in this write up represent FFO per share.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report >>


Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
TAUBMAN CENTERS (TCO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
HOST HOTEL&RSRT (HST): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
WELLTOWER INC (HCN): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
VORNADO RLTY TR (VNO): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
 
Zacks Investment Research