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EM Euro Issuance Will Be Highest In A Decade On QE

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FEAR & GREED INDEX - What Emotion dominates the market?

 

NOW:78/100 GREED

1 WEEK AGO: 77/100 GREED

1 MONTH AGO: 28/100 FEAR

1 YEAR AGO: 56/100 GREED

 

SAFE HAVEN DEMAND – GREED - Stocks have outperformed bonds by 8.43 percentage points during the last 20 trading days. This is close to the strongest performance for stocks relative to bonds in the past two years and indicates investors are rotating into stocks from the relative safety of bonds.

STOCK PRICE STRENGTH – GREED - The number of stocks hitting 52-week highs exceeds the number hitting lows and is at the upper end of its range, indicating extreme greed.

CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX (VIX) = 13.91 - NEUTRAL - Market Risks appear low according to this measure

PUT AND CALL OPTIONS - GREEDDuring the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 41.84% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this among the lowest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating greed on the part of investors.

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PIVOT POINTS

EURUSD | GBPUSDUSDJPYUSDCADAUDUSD | EURJPY | EURCHFEURGBPGBPJPYNZDUSDUSDCHFEURAUD | AUDJPY

S&P 500 (ES) | NASDAQ 100 (NQ)DOW 30 (YM) | RUSSELL 2000 (TF) Euro (6E) | Pound (6B)

EUROSTOXX 50 (FESX) | DAX 30 (FDAX)BOBL (FGBM) | SCHATZ (FGBS) | BUND (FGBL)

CRUDE OIL (CL) | GOLD (GC)

HEADLINES

 

German Bundestag Votes 542 In Favour Of Greek Extension Vs 32 Against

Greek FinMin Varoufakis: Says Greece Is Facing Financing Gap

Fed's Lockhart: FOMC Meetings From June Onward Open To Rate Increases

BoE's Forbes Says Inflation To Rise 'Within The Year'

Japan's GPIF Slashes JGB Holdings In Q4; Raises Domestic Stocks

Sterling Rise May Be Weighing On Business Sentiment - Lloyds

Swedish Q4 GDP Growth Tops Expectations

Ireland Retail Sales Rise For Third Month In January

Ericsson Sues Apple For Patent Infringement To Defend Fair Licensing System

UK Treasury Apologises For Lloyds Bonds Mistake

BASF Profit Up 25% Despite Chill From Oil Prices

Ukraine Pays Gazprom $15 Mln For 24 Hours Worth Of Gas

Brazil's Government Limits Spending Through April

 

COMMENTARY

 

PREVIEW: Less Growth, Better Make-Up In US GDP To Fuel Volatility

If the market believes that too-tepid inflation will prevent the Federal Reserve from hiking rates this summer, risk sentiment may see a nice pop on Friday, (after the Bullard-inspired softness of the past session) when an already bigger-than-expected deceleration in US economic growth is poised to become even deeper.

Surely, with fourth quarter growth fading back to the feeble 2% rate seen throughout most of the recovery the door to a June lift-off will be firmly shuttered, the odd investor might think.

Yet a more nuanced, and incidentally more upbeat, narrative will likely better reflect the proceedings in the US economy in the final months of 2014.

The Department of Commerce in Washington will release the updated fourth quarter GDP numbers at the usual 8:30am slot. (WBP Online – Continue Reading)

 

German Lawmakers Approve Extension Of Bailout Program For Greece

German lawmakers approved an extension of Greece’s loan program after Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition staved off dissent from bailout-weary members in its own ranks.

With Merkel’s government holding a majority of almost four- fifths and opposition lawmakers adding their votes, 542 voted to approve the measure, 32 voted against and 13 abstained.

“It’s not about new billions for Greece, it’s not about any change in the program,” Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in the lower house of parliament, or Bundestag, in Berlin. “It’s about offering more time to allow this program to be completed successfully.” (ekathimerini – Continue Reading)

Grand Central: Role Of New York Fed Stirs Divisions In Central Bank

In a speech earlier this month, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said the central bank needs to “fully and frontally” address concerns that too much power resides in the New York Fed.

His proposal: Strip the New York Fed presidency of its role as vice chair of the Federal Open Market Committee, which is the Fed’s interest rate decision-making body. Instead, he would rotate the position with the Fed’s other 11 regional bank presidents. Sen. Richard Shelby (R., Ala.), the Senate Banking Committee chairman, has said he is “very strongly” considering Mr. Fisher’s ideas. The proposal is also supported by the Independent Community Bankers of America, a lobbying group for small banks.

Inside the Fed, however, Mr. Fisher’s proposal isn’t hugely popular, even among the other regional Fed bank presidents who stand to gain from his suggestion. (WSJ – Continue Reading)

EM Euro Issuance Will Be Highest In A Decade On QE

Euro-denominated emerging market sovereign issuance will soar to its highest levels in 10 years on the back of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing programme, as issuers outside the eurozone seek to take advantage of falling euro yields, according to bank analysts.

Euro debt issuance from emerging market sovereigns is expected to rise by 67% to EUR35bn this year because of the ECB's EUR1.1trn bond buying plan, which has already pushed yields down in the single currency region before a security has even been bought.

The ECB move will have a knock-on effect on euro-denominated issuance outside the eurozone, as investors look outside their regular stomping ground in search of higher returns, driving down the yields of emerging market euro curves in the process.

There is evidence that ECB fever has already hit the market following a tightly-priced dual-tranche offering from Mexico on Thursday. (Reuters – Continue Reading)

 

Saudis' Oil Price War Is Paying Off

Three months after Saudi Arabia made clear it was going to let oil prices keep tumbling, the strategy is showing signs of working.

U.S. drillers are idling rigs at a record pace, gutting investment plans and laying off thousands of workers.

Those steps highlight how the Saudi-led OPEC decision on Nov. 27 to maintain output levels and protect its market share is having the desired effect -- pushing prices down so far that they threaten to curb output in the U.S. and other non-OPEC countries. Saudi Arabia, the most powerful member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, will maintain that tack when the group next meets in June, according to some of the world’s biggest banks. (Bloomberg – Continue Reading)

DATA

UK Lloyds Business Barometer Feb: 45 (prev 52)

German CPI Baden Wuerttemberg (MoM) Feb: 0.90% (prev -1.00%)

German CPI North Rhine Westphalia (MoM) Feb: 0.80% (prev -1.00%)

German CPI Hesse (MoM) Feb: 1.00% (prev -1.00%)

German CPI Saxony (MoM) Feb: 0.90% (prev -1.20%)

German CPI Bavaria (MoM) Feb: 0.90% (prev -1.00%)

Spanish CPI EU Harmonised (YoY) Feb P: -1.20% (est -1.50%; prev -1.50%)

Italian CPI NIC Incl. Tobacco (MoM) Feb P: 0.30% (est 0.10%; prev -0.40%)

Greek GDP (QoQ) Q4 F: -0.40% (prev -0.20%)

Greek Retail Sales (YoY) Dec: -3.70% (est -2.50%; prev -1.60%)

Irish Retail Sales Volume (MoM) Jan: 3.30% (rev prev 0.70%)

Portuguese GDP (YoY) Q4 F: 0.70% (est 0.70%; prev 0.70%)

Swedish GDP (QoQ) Q4: 1.10% (est 0.50%; prev 0.30%)

Swedish Retail Sales NSA (YoY) Jan: 5.10% (est 3.80%; prev 3.40%)

Swiss KOF Leading Indicator Feb: 90.1 (est 89; rev prev 96.1)

 

GOVERNMENT/ CENTRAL BANK NEWS & COMMENTARY

Bundestag Backs Greek Bailout Extension

Greek FinMin Varoufakis: Says Greece Is Facing Financing Gap

Fed?s Lockhart: FOMC Meetings From June Onward Open To Rate Increases

BoE?s Forbes Says Inflation To Rise ?Within The Year?

 

GOVERNMENT/ BOND NEWS & COMMENTARY

Japan's GPIF Slashes JGB Holdings In Q4; Raises Domestic Stocks

German Yields Rise As Consumer Price Drop Not As Bad As Feared

EM Euro Debt Issuance To Soar To 10-Year High Amid ECB QE - Analysts

Treasury Apologises For Lloyds Bonds Mistake

 

EQUITY NEWS & COMMENTARY

Wall St Futures Edge Lower Ahead Of Growth Report

Europe Shares Pause After Best Start Of Year In Decades

Falls At Intu And RBS Nudge FTSE Off Record Peaks

Asia: Stocks Mixed On Japanese Data, Chinese Stimulus Speculation

Ericsson Sues Apple For Patent Infringement To Defend Fair Licensing System

BASF Profit Up 25% Despite Chill From Oil Prices

Lloyds Banking Group To Resume Dividend Payments

IAG Upgrades 2015 Profit Forecast

Petronas Posts First-Ever Quarterly Loss

 

CURRENCY/ COMMODITY NEWS & COMMENTARY

EUR/USD Breaks Month-Long Range As Crowd Flips To Net-Long

GBP/USD- Limited Movement Ahead Of Key US Reports

Gold Gets Cold Feet In The Shadow Of A Strong Dollar

Copper Falls After Inventories Rise; Set For Monthly Gain

Brent Trades Near $61, Set For First Monthly Gain Since July

Ukraine Pays Gazprom $15 Mln For 24 Hours Worth Of Gas

 

EMERGING MARKET NEWS & COMMENTARY

Emerging Markets-Turkey Under Pressure But Stocks Head For Weekly Gains

Brazil?s Government Limits Spending Through April

South African Trade Deficit Widens To New Record

Russia To Mull Allowing China Over 50% Stake In Strategic Oil, Gas Fields ? TASS