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EUR/USD to Threaten the 2014-high at 1.3966

The EUR/USD is trading near the 1.39 market as we get into the 4/10 US session. This week's rally: 
1) pushed above a falling channel resistance. 
2) pushed above the 1.3875 resistance pivot.
3) crossed back above the 200-100-50 daily simple moving averages
4) was helped by a weak USD, which can be attributed to the dovish FOMC minutes released on Wednesday.
5) shows bullish continuation


(eurusd daily chart, 4/10)

Overbought?
This week's 4-session rally so far has brought the stochastic close to overbought area in the daily chart. Although we might see some near-term correction, the bullish trend since at least July 2013, is intact as long as the market while price is above 1.37.

On a dip, the market might provide support in the 1.38-1.3820 area, which includes common resistance since Oct. 2013.

Bearish outlook:

At this point, the bearish outlook should be shelved until a break below 1.3640. That would clear below a key support pivot, a rising trendline, and challenge the 200-day SMA.

Until then, the market looks poised to test the 2014-high at 1.3966, and perhaps push toward 1.40 before a meaningful correction.