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July Jangles Markets' Nerves: Treasury Yields Tumble, Stocks Fumble, & Commodities Crumble

No excuse needed...

This seemed to sum the talking heads up today...

Everyone who loves the ECI index is now searching for another index to like

— GreekFire23 (@GreekFire23)

 

Everything was awsome today after the worst wage growth in US history sent stocks soaring.. and then they unleashed The Bullard:

  • 1408ET *FED'S BULLARD SAYS "IN GOOD SHAPE" FOR SEPT HIKE: DJ VIA CNBC

Complete chaos today...

 

With cash indices ending mixed (Nasdaq desparately clinging to green and Small caps ripped on biotech reach for safety lol!!!)

 

A complete disconnect between yields and stocks until Bullard spoiled the party...

 

Today across bonds, stocks, and gold...

 

Stocks were rolling over hard and then...

  • The Market Broke - 1532ET *NYSE HAVING BINARY GATEWAY LATENCY ISSUE ON IP 159.125.64.138

And so VIX was slammed...to ensure S&P holds the all-important 2100 level...

 

*  *  *

Year-to-Date... Dow's down, Bonds down-er, Crude down-est... as The US Dollar is up 7.5%...

 

Trannies are still the big laggards with Nasdaq leading...

 

Led by Healthcare (Biotechs) as Energy remains the biggest loser...

 

*  *  *

It was quite a month!!

Bonds hot, commodities cold, stocks meh...

 

Bonds had their best month since January... (TLT +4.3%) - 2s30s biggest flattening (-23bps) since January

 

Stocks managed - after this week's epic surge - to get into the green for July...Trannies best month since Feb (up 4.1%) but Small Caps (Russell 2000) fell for the first time since April...

 

Commodities worst month since Sept 2011... to the lowest since April 2002

 

  • WTI Crude's worst month since Oct 2008 (down 20.5%) - lowest close since March 2015
  • Copper's worst month since Jan 2015 (down 10%) - lowest close since June 2009
  • Gold's worst month since June 2013 (down 6.5%) - lowest monthly close since Jan 2010
  • Silver's worst month since Sept 2014 (down 6%) - lowest monthly close since July 2009

*  *  *

On the week, Stocks soared...

 

As VIX "Matterhorn"-ed...

 

Bonds soared...

 

The dollar ended the week unchanged...

 

and all but silver slipped in commodities...

 

And crude was crushed back to a $46 handle...

 

Finally - despite all the huffing and puffing over how China saved the world again with their intervention, Chinese stocks suffered their worst week in the last 5, crashing 9-12%...

The Shanghai Composite closed July down 14.4% - the worst month since August 2009.

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: "Smart" Money Flow Continues To Signal Rotation To Weak Hands...