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Monitoring a Bullish Breakout in CHF/JPY

The CHF/JPY has been falling since June after making a high then of 134.50. After falling and cracking 122, the pair found support around 121.90 in September and has since been essentially consolidating as we can see in the daily chart. 

CHF/JPY Daily Chart 10/10/2015

(click to enlarge)

Now, in the daily chart, CHF/JPY still looks bearish as price trades under the 200-, 100-, and 50-day SMAs and while the daily RSI is under 60. On the other hand, although still an early signal, CHF/JPY is showing some threat of a bullish breakout. Price is trying to climb back above September highs and a falling trendline. if price can break above 126.15, we should consider it a successful bullish breakout, especially if the RSI also pushes above 60.

There is also some shorter term evidence we can anticipate in the 4H chart. 

CHF/JPY 4H Chart 10/10/2015

(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows that there was some resistance around 125.40 at the end of the week. Now if price pulls back further, let's monitor the 123.75-124 area. Should this area hold as support for a push above 124.40 (high of 10/6-10/7), then, we can anticipate further upside towards the 126-126.15 area and maybe even higher towards the August high just under 129.00.

If price breaks below 123.50, the bullish threat would be subdued. And a break below 123.00 would likely bring a bearish continuation scenario  back in play. .