Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

EUR/USD Leaning on a Bearish Breakout

We have been following the EUR/USD as it trades indecisively in the past couple of weeks. After the ECB announced QE, it fell to 1.11. Then it started to consolidate and neither a hawkish FOMC nor a strong US NFP was able to push it back below 1.1270 and back towards 1.11. 

EUR/USD 4H Chart 2/11

(click to enlarge)

On the other hand, the EUR/USD has been unable to push back above 1.1370 this week. Then, during the first half of the 2/11 session, it failed to even threaten the 1.1370 level. This might be a sign that the market is ready to break to the downside and revive the prevailing downtrend, or at least test the 1.11 area to see if there is support.

EUR/USD 1H Chart 2/11
(click to enlarge)

In the 1H chart we can see the slight bearish bias since last Friday's reaction to the NFP report. Price is now trading below the 200-, 100-, and 50-hour simple moving averages. The RSI has tagged 30, and has held below 60. These technical conditions suggest bears are in control at least in this time-frame. 

A break below 1.1270 exposes the 1.11 handle, with risk of extending lower towards 1.10. 

A break above 1.1370 does kill the bearish bias especially if the 1H RSI pop up above 60. In that scenario, look for pressure back towards the 1.15 area.