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AUD/USD Getting Ready to Break Out

The AUD/USD has been bullish since the beginning of February, but in a very choppy manner.


(AUD/USD 4H Chart)

The bullish stance:
1) The start of March brought another bullish swing that broke the February consolidation range
2) Price bounced off the upward sloping 200-SMA and has been holding above it.
3) Price is also above the 10SMA and 20SMA. AUD/USD is at least bullish in this time-frame.
4) The orientation of the moving averages also reflect strong bullish trend in the short-term. (10SMA above 20SMA above 200SMA).
5) The RSI tagged 70 several times in February-March, but has failed to tag 30 during this period, a sign that bullish momentum is dominant. 

Resistance can be seen in the daily chart.

(AUD/USD Daily Chart)

The bullish stance is challenging some resistance factors seen in the daily chart. 
1) Falling resistance going back to April 2013.
2) 200-Day SMA
3) Resistance pivot just above, around 0.9170.

If these resistance factors are broken, and the daily RSI tags 70, we might have a run towards 0.97, but in the short-term, the 0.9260-0.93 area contain pivots going back to July 2013, which we should watch for resistance.

The FOMC meeting in the 3/19 session is the main event risk for AUD/USD and other USD-pairs this week. Let's see if the market will break higher, or if tapering and forward guidance gives USD-strength and holds off the Aussie.