Sasha Singh
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Are You Bullish on USDJPY?

US dollar is finally higher against its major counterparts after the Fed Chair Janet Yellen gave some guidance about the current economic conditions and future Monetary Policy actions. The main point that encouraged investors to long dollar which sent the dollar to its previous highs was that Fed might increase interest rates if the labor market continues to improve more quickly than expected.  However the investors ignored yellen point that although the economy is continuing to improve but the recovery is not yet complete and reiterated that rates are likely to remain on hold for a considerable period after the bank’s quantitative easing program ends.

(USDJPY : 4 Hour Chart)

If looking at the 4 hour chart of USDJPY, the pair was consolidating within the consolidating triangle and broke out after Yellen testimony. However to me these gains seems limited as the 50 day SMA tried to cross above the 100 day SMA but it again fell below the 100 day SMA giving a signal that the pair might decline. Investors are also waiting for the data releasing out today. 

(USDJPY : Daily Chart)

However on the daily the pair seems like trading within a descending triangle. There is a falling resistance trend line from which the pair might decline. Also 50 day SMA just touched the 200 day SMA and if it crosses below the 200 day SMA, the pair might decline.

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