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Dillard's (DDS): Will Markdowns Weigh on Earnings in Q1?

Dillard's Inc. DDS is expected to report first-quarter fiscal 2016 results on May 12. In the last quarter, the company delivered a negative earnings surprise of 11.8%.

Also, this departmental store chain missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the last four quarters, delivering an average negative earnings surprise of 6.1%. Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.



Factors Influencing this Quarter

Dillard's repeated its dismal performance trend in fourth-quarter fiscal 2015 as both the top and bottom lines declined year over year. Also, earnings lagged expectations due to a fall in merchandise sales coupled with gross margin contraction that stemmed from higher markdowns. Also, management’s commentary indicated that the sales weakness in energy producing regions and higher markdowns to revive sales persist as fiscal 2016 proceeds.

While these factors keep us cautious of the upcoming results, we remain impressed with the company’s focus on increasing productivity at existing stores, developing a leading omni-channel platform and enhancing its domestic operations to support future results. Consequently, we would prefer to wait and see what’s in store for Dilliard’s in the quarter to be reported.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Dillard's is likely to beat on earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. This is not the case here, as you will see below:

Zacks ESP: Earnings ESP for Dillard's is currently pegged at 0.00%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate both stand at $2.62 per share.

Zacks Rank: Dillard's currently carries a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell). We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions.

Stocks that Warrant a Look

Here are some companies you may want to consider as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

The TJX Companies Inc. TJX, scheduled to report earnings on May 17, has an Earnings ESP of +1.43% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

L Brands Inc. LB, scheduled to report earnings on May 18, has an Earnings ESP of +1.75% and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold).

ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance Inc. ULTA, scheduled to report earnings on May 26, has an Earnings ESP of +0.78% and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy).

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TJX COS INC NEW (TJX): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
ULTA SALON COSM (ULTA): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
DILLARDS INC-A (DDS): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
L BRANDS INC (LB): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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