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Platts Pre-Report Survey of Analysts Results: UNICA Sugarcane Crush

LONDON and SAO PAULO, Sept. 23, 2015 /PRNewswire/ --

Platts Survey of Analysts

  • Cane crush: 29.09 million metric tons (mt)
  • Total recoverable sugar (ATR): 147.19 kilograms per metric ton
  • Sugar production: 1.711 million mt
  • Total ethanol production: 1.454 billion liters (ltr)
  • Hydrous ethanol production: 861 million ltr
  • Anhydrous ethanol production: 588 million ltr
  • Sugar mix: 42.23 %
  • Ethanol mix: 57.77%

Sugarcane crush volumes in the key Center-South region of Brazil in the first half of September are expected to total 29.09 million mt, according to a Wednesday survey of analysts conducted by Platts' Kingsman, an agriculture analysis and forecasting unit. Platts is a leading global provider of energy and commodities information and benchmark prices. The consensus estimate accounts for an average of five to six days of crush lost to rain.

Analysts' expectations for cane crush spanned 27.8 million mt to 30.7 million mt. Brazilian sugarcane industry group UNICA is expected to release its bimonthly sugarcane harvest data in the upcoming days.

Analysts at Platts' Kingsman forecast the cane crush at 29 million mt. The amount of sugar available (ATR) would be 147.5 kg/mt, up 1.61 kg/mt from second-half of August.

According to Platts' Kingsman, the peak of the ATR curve is approaching. Normally it occurs during the second half of September or the first half of October. However, this year it could peak earlier due to abnormal weather, flowering and the age of the cane.

In terms of ethanol production, the average of analysts' expectations points to total ethanol output of 1.454 billion liters, which would be a decrease of 513 million liters compared with H1 September 2014.

Hydrous ethanol production is expected to fall to 861 million liters, the lowest volume for 1H September since the 2006-07 crop when 639 million liters were produced, and closely compares to the volume of 859 million liters recorded in 1H July. If hydrous ethanol...