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AUDUSD : Gain Seems Limited

(AUDUSD :  4 Hour Chart )

AUDUSD seems like following a rising wedge pattern which signals that the pair is going to reverse its uptrend to downtrend. AUD got its strength against the US Dollar counterpart after the release of upbeat Australian Business Confidence data however the gains would be limited by other weak economic reports. The National Australia Bank reported that its business confidence index rose to 7 from a reading of 6 in April. A separate report showed that the home loans in Australia remain unchanged in April compared to the expectations for a .2% rise after a .8% fall in March.

Technically the pair seems bearish to me however there is one contrary movement of the 50 day SMA which crossed above the 100 day and 200 day SMAs giving a bullish signal. But this might be short term trend and it might again come back below these SMAs. In the stochastic oscillator the pair is in the overbought zone so the gains seems limited.