Drew
1
All posts from Drew
Drew in Just my thoughts,

There's a Chance We Are Already in a Global Recession

Apparently, according to certain metrics, we are already in a global recession. The main factor they cite is the fact that when denominated in USD, the world has dipped into recession territory.

I’m not sure I believe that. I feel like the numbers can be juked to say anything you want them to say. It’s just like with sports statistics. One guy can argue that a basketball player like Kobe Bryant is bad because he shoots a low percentage, but then another guy can say he’s actually good because he takes such difficult shots. (Note: He’s bad, and not even his crazy advanced quasi-legal genetic engineering he goes through in Germany in the offseason is going to change that.)

Still, one number that is giving people pause has to do with negative interest rates. As some banks start to charge to hold onto cash, what does that mean for people looking for a safe place to store their money? And are major companies like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) who have insanely big cash stores in for a world of hurt? That will have huge ramifications down the road.

Regardless, whenever I see an article claiming that one chart absolutely, positively shows that we are in a recession, I have to take a step back. What agenda are they pushing? Are they combing through all the data to present an accurate picture, or are they doing only preliminary work and then jumping to conclusions? The people who put together that chart might be right, but I’d take it with a grain of salt.