Fan Yang
1
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

GBP/CHF Waiting for a Consolidation Range Breakout

The GBP/CHF has been consolidating since last week between support at 1.4906 and resistance at 1.5108. 

GBP/CHF 1H Chart 9/15
(click to enlarge)

The short-term mode before the consolidation range was bullish, but the 1H chart shows that the market has neutralized the mode in the short-term. This week so far, price action has been holding mostly in the bottom half of the range, suggesting some slight bearish bias. However, the 1.4906 support has been holding. If price breaks above 1.5020, the 1.5108 resistance comes into play again. A break below 1.49 would signal a bearish reversal in the short-term.

GBP/CHF Daily Chart 9/15
(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows a market that is essentially sideways in the medium-term with some bullish bias since May. The multi-month rally (May-August) has been broken in August when price slid sharply to break below a rising trendline. If price falls below 1.49, it would put the 1.4586 August low back in sight, with downside risk towards 1.4465 as well.  

The thing is, if price can hold above 1.48, there could still be upside in-line with the uptrend since May. Even though that rising trendline was broken, the overall bullish price action since May still seems to be the dominant mode, especially if price can hold above the cluster of 200- ,100- and 50-day SMAs. Furthermore, the RSI appears to be staying above 40 despite a brief violation, suggesting that the bullish momentum is still in play.