Andrew Trinh
1
All posts from Andrew Trinh
Andrew Trinh in TRADEintime,

Buses for investment: unusual way of making money

School buses are one of the unique features of the United States. However, they are so popular not only because of their symbolism but mostly due to their practical value. According to 2010 data from 843 thousand registered buses in the country more than a half were school buses (480 thousand buses). School buses allow parents and schools to save time and organize children transportation to the place of destination. All this is achieved by:
- Special privileges for road movement
- Increased safety of the machines in accordance with international standards
- Visibility on the road due to the yellow color
- The schedule of buses movement

School buses will be part of the auto industry for a long time, and the above-mentioned reasons only confirm this. Let's look at one of the major players of this sector: Blue Bird Corp - manufacturer of school buses; and think about whether it is possible to invest in their shares.

Macroeconomic factors

One of the main factor making up the demand for school buses is the number of schools and number of students in the country. The number of schools in the United States, as can be seen in the diagram below, after 2006-07 hasn’t altered seriously dynamics and at the end of 2013 there were 98 500 schools. Regarding to the statistics of the number of students in the country, we also see the holding up of the growth here. Since 2010 figures are at the same level: 55 million students each year. However, according to the National Centre for education statistics on the dynamics of the forecast is much more optimistic and already in 2016 we will see an increase in the number of schoolchildren. The increase will continue until the end of the forecast in 2024, although. This is definitely a positive thing for the future of the company.

Source: National Centre for education statistics

Apart from statistics, an important factor is the emerging trend from 2014 to transition the fleet schools buses with an electric motor. Thus, there is the gradual replacement of old buses by new ones, which creates demand for the products of the company.

The activities of the company

The company's geography of product sales can be confidently called good. Official dealers can be found in all US states, and you might conveniently do that in the company's website.

The company shows a strong leap of incoming revenue, followed by naturally growing profit in the last two years.

Source: www.blue-bird.com

Technical Analysis

In February 2015 the company IPO have passed controversially, the stocks fluctuated rising and falling significantly during the first two months, then it fell down. However, the Bulls soon "won" and the stock price were raising until the summer. Nevertheless, the dynamic went in the opposite direction by the end of the summer, investors fixed their profits. Today the prices are at fairly low historical lever. Given the fact that prices rebounded steadily from $ 10 per share, a further strong decline is hardly possible, however, you should wait for financial statements for 2015 and if there be positive results - buy.

Risks

1. The mass rejection of school buses with electric motors

2. Forming of new competitors

Our recommendations

First of all, you should wait until the financial statements for 2015 releases and then estimate them. With the continuing positive trend of the company's performance, we recommend you to buy, focusing on long-term investment (2-5 years).