Zacks
0
All posts from Zacks
Zacks in Our Research. Your Success.,

Will Loss of Contracts Hurt Molson Coors (TAP) Q1 Earnings?

Molson Coors Brewing Co. TAP is set to report first-quarter 2016 results before the opening bell on May 3. Last quarter, this beverage company posted a negative earnings surprise of 5.77%. It should be noted that the company posted three positive and one negative earnings surprise in the last four quarters, bringing the average to a positive surprise of 4.15%.

Let’s see how things are shaping up prior to the announcement.

Factors to Consider

We note that Molson Coors has been struggling with weak volumes in the major markets of Canada, the U.S. and Europe over the past several quarters. Despite modest recovery in the macroeconomic scenario, the company witnessed year-over-year decline in earnings and revenues throughout 2015 due to lower volumes and unfavorable foreign currency movements.

While the overall alcohol market decline is hurting beer volumes in Europe, the weak economic conditions are partially responsible for lowering volumes in the U.S. The premium beer segment in Canada has been persistently losing volume to the above-premium and value segments, mainly because of an aging population and sluggish economy. A tax increase in Québec is also hurting Canada volumes. The termination of business contracts in the U.K. and Canada also had a negative impact on sales. The terminated Heineken contracts in the UK will continue to present a headwind in the first quarter of fiscal 2016.

Nevertheless, the company’s cost-savings initiatives, continuous focus on brand building and increased marketing investments should have a positive impact on first quarter results, in our view.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Molson Coors is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP:  Earnings ESP for Molson Coors is 0.00% as both the Zacks Consensus Estimate and the Most Accurate estimate stand at 43 cents.

Zacks Rank: Molson Coors’ Zacks Rank #3 increases the predictive power of ESP. However, we need to have a positive ESP to be confident about a positive surprise.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stocks to Consider

Here are some consumer staple companies, which are worth considering, as our model shows that they have the right combination of these two elements:

Tupperware Brands Corporation TUP with an Earnings ESP of +0.90% and a Zacks Rank #1.

Church & Dwight Co. Inc. CHD with an Earnings ESP of +1.19% and a Zacks Rank #2.

Avon Products, Inc. AVP with an Earnings ESP of +50.00% and a Zacks Rank #3.

Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report >>


Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report
 
TUPPERWARE BRND (TUP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
MOLSON COORS-B (TAP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
AVON PRODS INC (AVP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
CHURCH & DWIGHT (CHD): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
To read this article on Zacks.com click here.
 
Zacks Investment Research