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Stalking EUR/USD in its Bearish Continuation Breakout

The EUR/USD has been sliding last week after finding resistance at 1.1035 and breaking below 1.0960, which formed a price top. In the !H chart we can see that price action has been persistently bearish since, and it started the week with a bearish breakout from a near-term consolidation structure around 1.06.

EUR/USD 1H Chart 4/13

(click to enlarge)

As we get into the 4/13 US session, price found support at 1.0520. Now, price should not rally back above 1.06 if the market is indeed continuing the bearish continuation mode as it was in last week. Now, as price continues lower, it will approach the 2015-low at 1.0462.

EUR/USD 4H Chart 4/13


(click to enlarge)

The 4H chart shows that after making a low at 1.0462 in mid-March, EUR/USD started to consolidate. Last week's bearish swing broke the consolidation structure so the 1.0462 low is indeed in sight. Now if there is a pullback from this low, we should limit the bullish outlook. We should first look fro resistance around 1.0610, Above that, the 1.0720 level should provide resistance. The most aggressive bullish outlook from here should be 1.08, unless the ECB surprises with a hawkish tone on Wednesday's monetary policy statement and press conference.

Otherwise, if QE is going as planned, the EUR/USD is poised to test and possible break below 1.0462 into new lows on the year.