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Where is the AUD/USD Going?

After consolidating for about a month (mid-Dec. to mid-Jan.), AUD/USD started up its bearish trend again and has now fallen to a 5-year low. It is wrapping up the week trading around 0.79.

AUD/USD Daily Chart 1/23
(click to enlarge)

The daily chart shows that price respected 0.83, the 50-day SMA, and a falling trendline. The RSI held below 60, and even below 50, showing persistent and strong bearish momentum. If there is a pullback, the 0.81 area might become resistance.

When we look at the monthly chart below, we can see that price has broken the 61.8% retracement level (of the 2008-2011 rally). It is about to test the 200-month SMA around 0.78. Below that there is further room to fall.

AUD/USD Monthly Chart 1/23
(click to enlarge)

Don't be surprised if AUD/USD falls into the 0.70-0.71 area, which contains the 78.6% retracement level, a previous support/resistance pivot, the 2006-low, and a rising trendline coming up from the 2001 lows around 0.4814.