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What's in the Cards for Insperity (NSP) in Q1 Earnings?

Insperity, Inc.NSP is set to report first-quarter 2016 results on May 2. Last quarter, the company reported a negative surprise of 21.88%. However, it has delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 3.00% over the trailing four quarters.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

Though the last quarter’s results were below expectations, the company had provided an upbeat outlook for the to-be-reported quarter. Given the cyclical nature of the business, the first quarter has generally been more profitable for Insperity.

Apart from the increase in worksite employees (WSE), the company is also expected to gain from the continued migration of users to more high-deductible health plans, which are expected to result in lower opportunity costs in the first quarter. In addition, lower health care costs and payroll taxes along with increased contribution from Strategic Business Units (SBU) are likely to be growth drivers.

In March, Insperity partnered with Vistage, which will serve as the company’s national sponsor in the Professional Employer Organization (PEO) category.

However, the sluggish global macro environment can lead to headcount reductions at client companies. An increase in health care costs does not bode well for Insperity as health care costs are one of the major components of operating expenses. Furthermore, client attrition amid increasing competition from the likes of Automatic Data Processing Inc. ADP and TriNet Group, Inc. TNET remain concerns.

For the first quarter of 2016, Insperity projects adjusted earnings in the range of $1.44 -$1.52 a share, reflecting growth of 67% to 77% over the first quarter of 2015.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Insperity is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Insperity currently has a 0.00% ESP because both the Most Accurate estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate stand at $1.39.

Zacks Rank: Insperity has a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), which when combined with a 0.00% ESP, makes surprise prediction difficult.

We caution against stocks with a Zacks Rank #4 or 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stock to Consider

Here is a stock that you may consider as our model shows it has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Enable Midstream Partners, LP ENBL has an Earnings ESP of +21.05% and a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).

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ENABLE MIDSTRM (ENBL): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
INSPERITY INC (NSP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
AUTOMATIC DATA (ADP): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
TRINET GROUP (TNET): Free Stock Analysis Report
 
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