Fan Yang
All posts from Fan Yang
Fan Yang in Fan Yang,

USD/JPY - Price Top Respected

The USD/JPY made a very sharp dip last week when the US stock markets took a hit. The daily chart shows the sharp plunge that eventually stabilized. Now, over the past 2 weeks, price did pullback, but was unable to push above 122. This shows respect the a previous resistance pivot in March, the 100- and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs), and most importantly the June-August price top. Regarding the moving average, price is now under the 200-day SMA as well, which suggests bears are indeed taking over at least in the short-term.

USD/JPY Daily Chart 9/4
(click to enlarge)

Today's NFP report actually gave the USD strength for the most part across the board. But it looks like the USD/JPY remains bearish. That is another signal that the market here is respecting the price top and turning bearish at least for the short-term. The medium-term outlook is probably neutral after being bullish since in the long-term (since 2011-2012). 

It looks like the 116 pivot is back in sight. At this point, if we see resistance around 120, we should increase the confidence of this bearish scenario.