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Key Events In The Coming Week

Today US activity will be very light given the Columbus Day holiday. As DB summarizes, we have a relatively quiet day for data watchers today but the calendar will pick up tomorrow and beyond with a big focus on inflation numbers amongst other things. Indeed tomorrow will see the release of Germany’s ZEW survey alongside CPI prints from the UK, France and Spain. Wednesday’s data highlights will include the US retail sales for September, the Fed’s Beige Book, CPI readings from China and Germany, US PPI, and the NY Fed Empire State survey. Draghi will speak twice on Wednesday which could also be a source for headlines. On Thursday, we will get Industrial Production stats and the Philly Fed Survey from the US on top of the usual weekly jobless claims. European CPI will also be released on Wednesday. We have the first reading of October’s UofM Consumer Sentiment on Friday along with US building permits/housing starts. Yellen’s speech at the Boston Fed Conference on Friday (entitled “Inequality of Economic Opportunity”) will also be closely followed.

Away from the macro events this week, it will also be a busy week for company earnings. We have over 50 S&P 500 companies lined up for quarterly results (nearly a fifth of the index’s market cap). JPMorgan and Citigroup will kick things off for US banks tomorrow followed by BofA on Wednesday, Goldman Sachs on Thursday, and Morgan Stanley on Friday. Away from Financials, we have the likes of Intel, Johnson & Johnson, Google, and GE also reporting this week.

Calendar snapshot courtesy of SocGen:

And the detailed weekly preview breakdown from Goldman:

In DMs, highlights of next week include US Philly Fed, IP and UMichigan Consumer Sentiment, MP Decision in Singapore.

  • [Monday] ---.
  • [Tuesday] Euro area IP, Singapore MP Decision (expect no change).
  • [Wednesday] Germany CPI, Japan IP.
  • [Thursday] US Philly Fed (expect 17, below consensus) and IP (expect 0.5%, a touch above consensus), Euro area CPI (expect 0.3%, in line with consensus).
  • [Friday] US UMichigan Consumer Sentiment (expect 82, below consensus).

In EMs, highlights of next week include MP Decisions in South Korea and Chile and IP in Hungary, Poland and Ukraine.

  • [Monday] China Trade Balance.
  • [Tuesday] Hungary IP.
  • [Wednesday] China CPI, South Korea MP Decision (expect no change).
  • [Thursday] Brazil Economic Activity, Chile MP Decision (expect 25bp cut).
  • [Friday] IP in Poland and Ukraine.

FULL CALENDAR

Monday, October 13

  • Events: Speeches by Fed’s Evans, ECB’s Praet, RBA’s Debelle and Polish National Bank’s Belka; Nobel prize for economic sciences.
  • China | Trade Balance (Sep): GS $41bn, consensus $40bn, previous $50bn
  • China | [MAP 3] Exports YoY (Sep): GS 11.0%, consensus 12.3%, previous 9.4%
  • China | [MAP 3] Imports YoY (Sep): GS -3.5%, consensus -2.1%, previous -2.4%
  • India | CPI YoY (Sep): GS 7.0%, consensus 7.2%, previous 7.8%

Tuesday, October 14

  • Events: Bank of Italy Releases Revised Public Debt Series.
  • Euro area | [MAP 5] Industrial Production SA MoM (Aug): Previous 1.0% (2.2% yoy)
  • Euro area | ZEW Survey Expectations (Oct): Previous 14.2
  • France | CPI Harmonized YoY (Sep): Consensus 0.5%, previous 0.5% (0.5% mom)
  • Germany | [MAP 3] ZEW Survey Expectations (Oct): Consensus 0, previous 6.9
  • Italy | CPI Harmonized YoY (Sep F): Previous -0.2%
  • Spain | CPI Harmonised YoY (Sep F): Previous -0.3% (0.1% mom)
  • Sweden | CPI YoY (Sep): Consensus 0.6%, previous 0.5% (0% mom)
  • United Kingdom | CPI Core YoY (Sep): Previous 1.9%
  • Singapore | [MAP 5] GDP YoY (3Q A): Consensus 2.7% (0.8% qoq ann sa), previous 2.4% (0.1% qoq ann sa)
  • Hungary | [MAP 4] Industrial Production WDA YoY (Aug F): Previous 2.90% (-5.70% mom)
  • Also interesting: [DM] US NFIB Small Business Optimism; France CA; UK ONS House Price and RPI; Japan Money Stock and PPI; Australia NAB Business Conditions [EM] India Wholesale Prices; Korea Money Supply; Czech Republic CA; Trade Balance in Nigeria and Poland.

Wednesday, October 15

  • Events: Speech by ECB’s Draghi and Nouy, BOE’s Weale, Hungary Central Bank’s Adam, US Federal Reserve Beige Book.
  • United States | [MAP 2] Empire Manufacturing (Oct): Consensus 20, previous 27.54
  • United States | [MAP 4] Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (Sep): GS 0.4%, consensus 0.20%, previous 0.30%
  • Germany | CPI Harmonized YoY (Sep F): Consensus 0.8%, previous 0.8%
  • United Kingdom | [MAP 4] ILO Unemployment (Aug): Consensus 6.1%, previous 6.2% (mom/qoq)
  • United Kingdom | Claimant Unemployment (Sep): Consensus 2.8K, previous 2.9K (mom)
  • Japan | Industrial Production MoM (Aug F): Previous -1.50% (-2.90% yoy)
  • Japan | Capacity Utilization MoM (Aug): Previous -0.80%
  • China | CPI YoY (Sep): GS 1.6%, consensus 1.7%, previous 2.0%
  • South Korea | MP Decision: We expect no change (7-Day Repo Rate at 2.25%, a touch below consensus) and for the Bank of Korea to “wait and see” the impact of recent government stimulus and the previous rate cut.
  • Israel | CPI MoM (Sep): GS -0.2% (-0.2% yoy), consensus -0.20% (-0.10% yoy), previous -0.10% (0.00% yoy)
  • Poland | CPI MoM (Sep): GS (-0.3% yoy), consensus -0.10% (-0.40% yoy), previous -0.40% (-0.30% yoy)
  • Russia | [MAP 5] Industrial Production YoY (Sep): Consensus 0.20%, previous 0.00%
  • Argentina | National Urban CPI MoM (Sep): GS 1.4%, previous 1.30%
  • Peru | [MAP 5] Economic Activity YoY (Aug): GS 1.0%, consensus 0.90%, previous 1.20%
  • Also interesting: [DM] US PPI and MBA Mortgage Applications; Canada Existing Home Sales; Norway Trade Balance; Spain CA; Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence; Singapore Retail Sales [EM] Philippines Overseas Remittances; South Korea Unemployment; South Africa Retail Sales; Turkey CA and Unemployment; Brazil Retail Sales; Peru Unemployment.

Thursday, October 16

  • Events: Speeches by Fed’s Plosser, Lockhart, Kocherlakota and Bullard, ECB’s Weidmann and RBA’s Debelle.
  • United States | [MAP 4] Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook (Oct): GS 17, consensus 20, previous 22.5
  • United States | [MAP 2] Industrial Production MoM (Sep): GS 0.5%, consensus 0.40%, previous -0.10%
  • United States | Capacity Utilization (Sep): GS 79.1%, consensus 79.00%, previous 78.80%
  • United States | [MAP 1] NAHB Housing Market Index (Oct): Consensus 59, previous 59
  • Euro area | CPI Harmonized YoY (Sep F): GS 0.3%, consensus 0.3%, previous 0.4%
  • New Zealand | BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI (Sep): Previous 56.5
  • Nigeria | CPI YoY (Sep): GS 8.5%, previous 8.50%
  • Poland | CPI Core MoM (Sep): Consensus 0.00% (0.60% yoy), previous 0.00% (0.50% yoy)
  • Brazil | [MAP 5] Economic Activity YoY (Aug): GS 0.4%, previous -0.23% (1.50% mom)
  • Chile | MP Decision: We expect a 25bp cut (Overnight Rate Target at 3.00%, in line with consensus) for the fourth consecutive month and for the MPC to change the forward-looking paragraph of the policy statement to signal the end of the long easing cycle. However, given another inflationary surprise in September, we assess a considerable probability that the board may leave the policy rate unchanged at 3.25% next week instead.
  • Colombia | [MAP 4] Industrial Production YoY (Aug): GS 0.0%, previous 1.60%
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Total Net TIC Flows, Initial Jobless and Continuing Claims; Euro area Trade Balance: New Zealand Consumer Confidence and ANZ Job Advertisements [EM] Poland Gross Average Wages; Colombia Retail Sales.

Friday, October 17

  • Events: Speeches by Fed’s Yellen, BOJ’s Kuroda, ECB’s Weidmann, Constancio and Nowotny.
  • United States | [MAP 1] Univ. of Michigan Confidence (Oct P): GS 82, consensus 84.0, previous 84.6
  • United States | [MAP 1] Housing Starts (Sep): Consensus 1000K, previous 956K
  • United States | Housing Starts MoM (Sep): GS 6.0%, consensus 4.60%, previous -14.40%
  • Canada | CPI SA MoM (Sep): Previous 0.10% (2.10% yoy)
  • Malaysia | CPI YoY (Sep): Consensus 2.6%, previous 3.3%
  • Singapore | [MAP 4] Non-oil Domestic Exports YoY (Sep): Consensus 2.5%, previous 6.0%
  • Hong Kong | Composite Interest Rate (Sep): Previous 0.42%
  • Poland | [MAP 3] Sold Industrial Output YoY (Sep): Consensus 3.10% (14.70% mom), previous -1.90% (-8.50% mom)
  • Ukraine | Industrial Production MoM (Sep): Consensus (-22.00% yoy), previous -12.70% (-21.40% yoy)
  • Also interesting: [DM] US Building Permits; Euro area Construction Output; Italy CA [EM] Thailand Foreign Reserves; Russia Retail Sales, Investment Statistics and Unemployment; Mexico Unemployment

Source: Deutsche, SocGen, BofA