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Deutsche Bank Boosts German GDP Forecast Due To "Surge In Immigration"

Even as the Syrian proxy war is on the verge of breaking out in a full-blown regional war, one involving not only the Saudis but the mastermind behind the entire conflict, Qatar, which is willing to sacrifice millions of innocent civilians just so its gas can finally be sold in Europe, the refugee crisis resulting from the constant instability in the mid-east, fanned by both the US and Russia, is approaching unprecedented proportions for one country: Germany.

It is Germany which is now expecting up to one and a half million (and likely many more) asylum seekers to arrive in 2015 according to Reuters, up from the 800,000- 1 million expected previously, with the result increasing social unrest not only as a result of the influx of foreigners, but due to the domestic reaction. As reported last weekend, Germany's domestic intelligence chief warned on Sunday of a radicalisation of Right-wing groups amid a record influx of migrants, as xenophobic rallies and clashes shook several towns at the weekend. President Joachim Gauck meanwhile warned of Germany's "finite capacity" to absorb refugees, cautioning against more "tensions between newcomers and established residents".

Furthermore, the domestic spy chief Maassen said that "what we're seeing in connection with the refugee crisis is a mobilisation on the street of Right-wing extremists, but also of some Left-wing extremists" who oppose them." He added, speaking on Deutschlandfunk public radio, that for the past few years his service had witnessed a "radicalisation" and "a greater willingness to use violence" by all extremist groups, including the far right, the anti-fascist far-left and Islamists.

This explains the dramatic exchange this past weekend when Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg and German Chancellor Angela Merkel were caught on a hot mic at the United Nations discussing the removing of certain posts from the prolific site. As Western Journalism chronicled, Merkel brought up the subject of anti-immigrant posts appearing on the German version of Facebook, as the country grapples with how to handle the largest refugee crisis since World War II.

"We need to do some work." Zuckerberg says. The German chancellor presses him. “Are you working on this?” she asks in English. “Yeah,” the Facebook CEO responds before the introductory remarks of the lunch meeting cuts off their conversation.

Reuters reported earlier this month that Facebook intends to cooperate with the German government in eliminating "hate postings" regarding the refugees. Specifically, the social media site will partner with the German Internet watchdog Voluntary Self-Monitoring of Multimedia Service Providers to identify offending posts.

After the hot mic fiasco, Facebook promptly issued the following statement:

We are committed to working closely with the German government on this important issue,” Facebook spokeswoman Debbie Frost said via e-mail to BloombergBusiness. “We think the best solutions to dealing with people who make racist and xenophobic comments can be found when service providers, government and civil society all work together to address this common challenge."

So as the German refugee crisis has now dragged down not only Merkel, whose popularity rating just tumbled to a four year low "reflecting growing concern over the influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees into Germany, a poll showed on Thursday", but has exposed "free speech" advocate Facebook as merely another government propaganda pawn, Germany has been scrambling to find some silver lining on this scandal.

It did just that on Friday, when the bank with the greatest amount of notional derivatives in Europe and the world, Deutsche Bank, raised its German 2016 GDP forecast "because the heavy influx of migrants would increase consumption as much as half a percentage point."

In other words, the more the immigrants, the greater the GDP boost according to the world's riskiest bank.

According to Reuters, German gross domestic product is now forecast to come in at 1.9 percent in 2016 compared with 1.7 percent in previous forecasts, the bank said in a research note published on Friday.

"Although the external and the financial environment have deteriorated we have lifted our 2016 GDP call," Deutsche Bank said.

"Drivers are stronger real consumption growth due to lower oil prices/stronger EUR and the surge in immigration," analysts wrote, adding they expected the boost in consumption to be evenly split between private and public.

As a reminder this analysis was written when "only" 800,000 refugees were expected to enter Germany.  Now that the number is nearly double, does that mean that German GDP is set to surpass 3%, or perhaps even 4%? Maybe Germany just found the answer to economic collapse domestically: just start a war abroad and accept the destroyed nation's population.

But before unleashing another round of Keynesian mocking and ridicule, perhaps this was the goal all along: "At the time of arrival, the average age of the immigrants is 23.3 years old - much younger than the domestic population, which averages 44.5 years, the bank said. Germany has long struggled to deal with its aging population, with government and industry saying immigration was needed to counter the looming demographic squeeze."

Well, what better way to provide a demographic boost to an aging population than to accept millions of refuges as a result of a conflict that ultimately benefits nobody more than Europe (if and when the Qatar gas pipeline is finally completed). Now if only Japan were to accept a few million Syrian refugees too, suddenly the demographic implosion of the entire developed world would become a thing of the past.