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NZD/USD - Falling Wedge vs. Rising Channel

NZD/USD has been rallying in February. We can say that it has been in a rising channel. Even though the support and resistance lines would eventually converge, they are relatively parallel in the 4H chart we are observing:

NZD/USD 4H Chart 3/3
(click to enlarge)

We can see that the NZD/USD retreated from last week's high around 0.76 to about 0.75 as we start the 3/3 session. Here the pair is meeting the rising channel support and the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-period SMAs. If price can hold above 0.75, and the 4H RSI above 40, then kiwi-greenback is still bullish. However, a break below 0.7475 would likely clear these support factors, and if the 4H RSI also drops below 40, we are likely in a bearish mode. In this scenario, the first area of support is likely in the 0.7330-0.7350 area. Below that, the 0.7176 low comes into play.

When we look at the 1H chart, we can see that price action since last week's high has been in a falling wedge. 


NZD/USD 1H Chart 3/3
(click to enlarge)

So far, the falling wedge is intact. But if price rallies above 0.7550, it would break above the wedge as well as the cluster of 200-, 100-, and 50-hour SMAs. That would indicate the rising channel support in the 4H chart held, and the highs around 0.76 would come into play. However, failure to push above 0.7550 and a drop below 0.75 would favor the bearish scenario discussed above.