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Akamai (AKAM) to Report Q1 Earnings: Will it Miss this Time?

Akamai Technologies, Inc.AKAM is set to report first-quarter 2016 results on Apr 26. The company reported a positive earnings surprise of 7.84% in the last quarter. It has also delivered an average positive earnings surprise of 3.07% over the four trailing quarters.

Let’s see how things are shaping up for this announcement.

Factors to Consider

This content delivery network provider has been seeing weakness in its Media delivery business for a while. In addition, this time around the company may face additional challenges as big players like Netflix NFLX and Apple AAPL have developed their own CDN, which will allow them to reduce their dependence on providers like Akamai. The loss of such large customers is expected to have some negative impact on the company’s top line.

This apart, even though consumers continue to shift from traditional videos, the rate of conversion has been lower than expected resulting in lower-than-expected growth in the company’s over-the-top (OTT) video business. Also, intense competition has kept pricing under tremendous pressure, particularly in the media segment, which is an added headwind.

Nonetheless, the company has been re-evaluating its growth strategy and this will be the first quarter under the new organizational structure, which is designed to increase productivity and growth opportunities from its ongoing innovation and go-to-market initiatives. The company is also likely to benefit from trends like rising mobile data traffic and demand for wireless broadband, growth in performance-driven advertising and dynamic transactions in the cloud.

For the first quarter of 2016, Akamai expects revenues in the range of $554 million to $570 million, representing 8% year-over-year growth.

Earnings Whispers

Our proven model does not conclusively show that Akamai is likely to beat earnings this quarter. This is because a stock needs to have both a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1, 2 or 3 for this to happen. That is not the case here as you will see below.

Zacks ESP: Akamai currently has an Earnings ESP of -1.96%. This is because the Most Accurate estimate stands at 50 cents per share while the Zacks Consensus Estimate is pegged higher at 51 cents per share.

Zacks Rank: Akamai has a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell).We caution against stocks with Zacks Rank #4 and 5 (Sell-rated stocks) going into the earnings announcement, especially when the company is seeing negative estimate revisions momentum.

Stock to Consider

Here's a stock worth considering that, as per our model, has the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat this quarter:

Silicon Motion Technology Corp. SIMO with Earnings ESP of +7.27% and a Zacks Rank #1

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