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Lilly (LLY) Raises View despite Q1 Earnings & Revenue Miss

Eli Lilly & Company LLY reported first-quarter 2016 adjusted earnings per share of 83 cents, a couple of cents below the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 85 cents per share and 5% below the year-ago earnings.


First-quarter revenues grew 5% to $4.865 billion but were just short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.875 billion. Revenues were driven by the impact of higher prices (1%) and higher volume (7%), partially offset by negative currency movement (3%). Higher volume reflected the performance of products like Trulicity and Cyramza and the take-back of rights to Erbitux.

Reported earnings (including special items) fell 18% to 41 cents per share in the first quarter of 2016.

The Quarter in Detail

U.S. revenues grew 16% to $2.556 billion reflecting higher volume for products like Trulicity, Erbitux and Humalog and higher realized prices for Cialis. Ex-U.S. revenues declined 5% to $2.31 billion, mainly due to unfavorable currency movement and the loss of exclusivity for Cymbalta in Europe in 2014, which was partially offset by higher volumes.

Humalog sales declined 11% to $606.3 million reflecting lower realized prices in the U.S., partially offset by higher demand. The lower realized prices were related to changes in estimates for rebates and discounts resulting in the overall decrease in revenues, a trend not expected to continue throughout the year.  

Cialis sales increased 7% to $576.7 million, driven by higher realized prices in the U.S. that was partially offset by the unfavorable impact of foreign exchange rates and lower volume in ex-U.S. markets.

Other products that recorded growth during the quarter include Forteo (up 9% to $318.6 million), Erbitux (up 90% to $168.1 million), Humulin (up 13% to $356.4 million), Strattera (up 8% to $188.1 million), and Effient (up 8% to $131.5 million). Lilly's Animal Health segment contributed $754.6 million (up 1%) to revenues.

Alimta sales declined 2% to $564.2 million, reflecting lower realized prices as well as unfavorable currency movement. Other products that recorded a decline in sales during the quarter include Cymbalta (down 31% to $198.7 million) and Zyprexa (down 3% to $212.8 million).

Among new products, Trulicity generated revenues of $143.6 million with U.S. revenues benefiting from the acceleration in growth of the GLP-1 market and increased market share for Trulicity. Cyramza revenues were $131.0 million with U.S. revenues being negatively impacted by competition in the NSCLC indication and positively impacted by uptake in the CRC indication. Ex-U.S. revenues benefited from strong uptake for the gastric cancer indication in Japan.

Jardiance sales ($38.2 million) were driven by increased market share within the growing SGLT2 class. Basaglar recorded revenues of $10.9 million, driven by early uptake in Japan and various European countries.

Portrazza, launched in Dec 2015, brought in sales of $1.7 million.

Operating expenses increased 6.6% to $2.693 billion.

Lilly bought back shares worth approximately $300 million during the quarter.

Revises View

The company revised certain parts of its guidance for the year and now expects revenues in the range of $20.6 billion - $21.1 billion, and earnings per share of $3.50 - $3.60 (up from old guidance of revenues of $20.2 billion - $20.7 billion, and earnings per share of $3.45 - $3.55). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings and revenues is $3.55 per share and $20.7 billion, respectively.

The updated revenue guidance reflects recent currency movement. While the company expects to spend $6.1 - $6.3 billion (old guidance: $6.0 billion - $6.2 billion) on marketing, selling and administration, research and development expenses are expected in the range of $4.9 - $5.1 billion (old guidance: $4.8 billion - $5.0 billion).

Our Take

Lilly’s first-quarter results fell short of expectations with earnings missing by a couple of cents and revenues just falling short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate. However, the company raised its outlook for the year reflecting the current currency rates and a lower tax rate resulting from the recognition of a discrete tax benefit in the first quarter.

Products like Humalog, Trajenta, Cialis, Forteo, Strattera, Erbitux, and animal health products should drive growth while revenues from new products like Cyramza, Trulicity, Jardiance, Portrazza and Basaglar will increase. However, Alimta will continue to be impacted by competition.

Lilly is a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) stock. Some equally well-ranked stocks in the large cap pharma sector include Novo Nordisk A/S NVO, Sanofi SNY and Johnson & Johnson JNJ.

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SANOFI-AVENTIS (SNY): Free Stock Analysis Report
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