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Gold Stays in Consolidation after Positive Jobs Data: FOMC Minutes Ahead

Gold price has been consolidating since the June rally. First it stopped at 1326 but pushed to 1332. However, positive jobs reports last week gave USD strength, and XAU/USD fell back to range. However, it stayed above the 1306 support, and maintained a bullish bias.


(gold 4h chart, 7/8)

Today (7/8) price started bullish, pushing above 1320, but stalled at 1325. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 4.64M job openings, excluding farming, at the end of May. This was better than the forecast around 4.5M, and is better than the 4.46K reported at the end of April.

The upside surprise is modest, but the reading does reflect an improving trend in job openings. Along with last recently resilient jobs data ie. last week's NFP (288K), traders are keeping USD supported ahead of the FOMC meeting minutes tomorrow, and are keeping XAU/USD in consolidation.


(source: forexfactory.com)

As you can see, job openings have returned to levels before the financial crisis. However, the positive jobs data might not be enough to turn USD bullish.

Tomorrow's FOMC meeting will be key. 


The main question is whether the FOMC is going to lower its growth forecast and in turn push back its rate hike outlook toward the latter half of 2015. If so, USD should remain weak, and XAU/USD should challenge and possibly break above the current consolidation range, opening up common highs in March around 1350.

If the FOMC minutes reveal no change in growth outlook, traders can focus more on the positive jobs data, which did come after the meeting that the minutes will be referring to. So a neutral tone gives way for a positive USD and XAU/USD will likely stay in consolidation. If this scenario is followed by a break below 1305, traders will look toward at least the 1285 resistance pivot, and the 1260 support pivot.