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EUR/USD Exposes 1.3105, the Sept. 2013 Low

This week, EUR/USD broke below a consolidation support of 1.3333 and opened up a bearish continuation. Traders pushed EUR/USD to the Nov. 2013 low at 1.3295-1.33, and broke it. The 4H RSI is below 30, which shows strong bearish momentum, but perhaps some oversold condition for the near-term. We can expect some consolidation around 1.33 for the RSI to climb back above 30 and back into neutral area around 50. Then, we should start looking for further downside risk. In this near-term consolidation, the upside risk should be limited to the 1.3333-1.3350 area, the lower bound of the previous 2-week's of consolidation.

(eurusd 4h chart 8/20)

If price can indeed hold below 1.3350 after a pullback, and the 4H RSI agian holds below 60, we should expect further downside. In the weekly chart, you can see that price is clearing the 200-weekly SMA, which is a bearish sign. 

The next support pivot is in the 1.31-1.3105 area, the low from Sept. 2013. If price dips to 1.31, and the RSI dips below 30, we can then expect some support. Otherwise, the outlook remains bearish in the short to medium term.

(eurusd weekly chart 8/20)